Core Insights - US retail sales demonstrated unexpected strength during the back-to-school season, indicating that consumer spending remains resilient despite concerns over tariffs and economic anxiety [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024 to stimulate economic growth, with traders predicting a 100% chance of at least a quarter-point cut [4][5] Retail Performance - Excluding automobiles, retail sales increased by 0.7% in August compared to the previous month, surpassing estimates of a 0.4% rise, while overall retail sales rose by 0.6% [1][2] - Nine out of thirteen retail categories reported sales increases in August, with online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods leading the way due to a strong back-to-school shopping season [7][10] - Clothing and accessories sales rose by 1% from the previous month, while spending on sporting goods, bookstores, and musical instruments increased by 0.8% [7][10] Consumer Sentiment - Lower and middle-income consumers are feeling the impact of tariff costs and inflation, leading to a decline in grocery sales, which suggests these groups are cutting back on spending [3][8] - In contrast, affluent consumers are benefiting from wage growth that outpaces inflation and a strong stock market, contributing to the overall retail sales performance [8][3] Specific Category Insights - Motor vehicle sales experienced a slower growth rate in August, affected by tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, while used car prices have risen due to increased demand for affordable options [9][12] - Sales in the furniture category, which is sensitive to tariffs, fell by 0.3% last month, while building materials and garden equipment sales increased by 0.1%, although they are down 2.3% year-over-year [12] - Grocery store sales rose by 0.3% in August, but this growth was slower than the inflation rate in the same category [12]