Core Viewpoint - Boeing's stock has declined nearly 5% in the last month due to ongoing certification delays, cash flow pressures, and a costly defense labor strike, raising concerns about revenue and margin pressures [2][4][6] Financial Performance - Boeing reported $67 billion in revenue for 2024 but faced a negative free cash flow of approximately $14 billion, with optimistic projections for 2025 suggesting free cash flow will only reach $5-6 billion [4][9] - The company's current valuation is around $220, equating to an equity value of approximately $166 billion, but could potentially drop by 50% if fundamentals do not improve [4] Risks and Challenges - Regulatory and certification delays for the 777-9 and other wide-body programs are costly in terms of time and capital [5] - Rising production and quality costs, including safety and quality reworks, are expected to escalate margin pressures [5][9] - Demand risks from macroeconomic slowdowns, airline bankruptcies, and geopolitical issues could hinder order momentum [9] Market Sentiment - A bearish scenario could see Boeing's stock price drop to the $100-$110 range if losses persist and cash flow remains negative [7] - The market is currently trading on a narrative of hope regarding delivery increases and cost management, but risks remain tangible [6][7] Operational Insights - Boeing improved deliveries in Q2, with 150 deliveries compared to 92 year-over-year, indicating scaling operations [9] - A robust backlog of approximately $520-600+ billion offers visibility into potential future revenues [9]