Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, believes that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle will be disrupted due to increased institutional investment, leading to reduced volatility and potentially preventing significant price declines [1][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Market Dynamics - Historically, Bitcoin experienced price drops of 75-90% in its early days, but recent trends indicate that volatility is decreasing as institutional interest grows [1]. - The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the mining reward to 3.125 bitcoins, which has historically led to bull runs by limiting new supply [1][2]. - Wood posits that Bitcoin is transitioning to a "risk-on asset," aligning more closely with the performance of stocks and real estate, contrasting with its previous role as a "risk-off asset" during times of economic distress [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Influence and Predictions - Wood's investment strategy includes increasing positions in crypto-related companies such as Coinbase and Circle, as well as in the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, indicating a strong belief in the future of cryptocurrencies [4]. - Standard Chartered has also suggested that the traditional halving cycle may no longer be a relevant price driver due to the impact of ETF buying, challenging previous market logic [4][5]. - The prediction market Myriad indicates a mere 4% chance of Bitcoin outperforming gold by 2025, reflecting skepticism about Bitcoin's future performance compared to traditional safe-haven assets [3].