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OneStream Goes Private, Navan at 4x ARR: Are The IPO Markets Really That Open?
SaaStr· 2026-01-08 15:10
Core Insights - OneStream is going private just 17 months after its IPO, highlighting challenges in the public market despite initial success [1][2] - The IPO market is open but companies face significant valuation reductions, with examples like Navan and JAMF illustrating the harsh realities of current market conditions [6][12][21] Company Performance - OneStream had a valuation of $6 billion at its IPO, but is being acquired for $6.4 billion, reflecting a 31% premium despite a 35% drop from its IPO highs [2][3] - Navan, with a current trading price of $17, is 32% below its IPO price of $25, trading at 4x ARR, indicating a tough market for non-AI B2B software [6][21] - JAMF, despite tripling its ARR from $225 million to $710 million, was acquired for $2.2 billion, which is less than half its initial IPO valuation, due to a significant slowdown in growth [9][20] Market Dynamics - The median public SaaS multiples have reset to 6-7x ARR, reflecting a return to 2016-2017 levels, with a widening gap between top and bottom performers [13][14] - Private equity investment in enterprise software has increased by 28% year-to-date in 2025, as PE firms can operate profitably at lower multiples [14][21] Investment Considerations - Companies need to achieve 25-40% growth to command premium multiples; those growing below 20% are likely to receive valuations of 3-7x ARR [15][23] - GAAP profitability is becoming increasingly important, with investors now seeking both growth and profitability, contrasting with previous years where growth alone sufficed [16][21] - The timeline to IPO is longer than anticipated, as seen with Navan's delayed public offering and OneStream's brief public tenure [17][21] Future Outlook - The IPO window is not closed but is characterized by a more realistic assessment of company valuations, particularly for those not in the AI sector [19][22] - Companies achieving 30%+ growth with GAAP profitability may still find favorable IPO conditions, while others may face acquisition at lower multiples by private equity [23]