Key Takeaways SSR Mining outperformed WPM with a 163.7% stock surge and trades at a lower forward valuation multiple.Wheaton Precious Metals posted record cash flow and targets 30% production growth in 2026.SSRM's recent acquisition boosts output outlook, though cost inflation and Copler issues weigh.Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) and SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) are well-known names in the silver mining space, sharing several key similarities that define their strategic positioning and investor appeal. Both ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.42% on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven demand due to the ongoing war with Iran and a +4% increase in crude oil prices, which may lead to inflation and prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy [1] - The US Q4 nonfarm productivity remained unchanged at +1.8%, while Q4 unit labor costs were revised upward to +4.4% from +2.8%, exceeding expectations of +3.6% [3] - The Mar S&P manufacturing PMI for the US unexpectedly increased to 52.4, stronger than the anticipated decline to 51.5 [3] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Conditions - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.20% on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger dollar and the negative impact of rising crude oil prices on the Eurozone economy [5] - The Eurozone Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose by +0.6 to 51.4, surpassing expectations of a decline to 49.6, marking the strongest pace of expansion in 3.75 years [6] - The Mar S&P composite PMI for the Eurozone fell by -1.4 to a 10-month low of 50.5, which was weaker than the expected 51.0 [6] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The dollar's gains are tempered by a poor outlook for interest rate differentials, with expectations that the FOMC will cut interest rates by at least -25 basis points in 2026, while the BOJ and ECB are anticipated to raise rates by at least +25 basis points in the same year [4]

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.38%.  The dollar is moving higher today as the ongoing war with Iran drags on, boosting safe-haven demand for the dollar.  Also, today's +3% jump in crude oil prices may stoke inflation and prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a supportive factor for the dollar.  The dollar added to its gains after the Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased. US Q4 nonfarm productivity was left unrevised at +1.8%, but Q4 unit labor costs were revised upward to +4. ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and analyst [1] - He has covered every futures market traded in the U.S. during his career [1] - Wyckoff is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service, "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] Group 2 - He has worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He holds a degree in journalism and economics from Iowa State University [2]

Group 1 - U.S. equity funds experienced the largest weekly net sales in nearly 2-1/2 months, with a net outflow of $24.78 billion, influenced by rising oil prices, unexpected inflation, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [1] - Large-cap funds faced significant losses, with a net outflow of $36.11 billion, marking the highest weekly outflow since mid-September 2025 [2] - Mid-cap funds saw a net outflow of $606 million, while small-cap funds recorded approximately $1.75 billion in net purchases, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment across different market capitalizations [2] Group 2 - Sectoral funds experienced a net inflow of $793 million, driven by a notable $1.55 billion investment into industrial sector funds, the highest in six weeks [2] - Bond funds saw a surge in weekly net investments, reaching a five-week high with approximately $11.53 billion in inflows, indicating a shift towards fixed-income securities [3] - Short-to-intermediate government and treasury funds had significant net purchases of $5.12 billion, while short-to-intermediate investment-grade funds attracted $3.9 billion in net investments [3] - Money market funds recorded a net investment of $32.73 billion, reflecting ongoing safe-haven demand for the fifth consecutive week [3]

Core Insights - AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) and Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) are benefiting from rising gold prices, which are currently around $4,990 per ounce, reflecting a 63.6% increase over the past year [1] Group 1: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) - AngloGold Ashanti has expanded its asset base with the acquisition of Augusta Gold Corp. in October 2025, enhancing its presence in Nevada [3] - The company further strengthened its portfolio by acquiring Centamin in November 2024, adding the Sukari mine, which produced a record 500,000 ounces of gold in 2025 [4] - AU's adjusted EBITDA reached a record $6.3 billion in 2025, a 129% year-over-year increase, driven by a 16% rise in gold production [5] - Projected gold production for 2026 is estimated at 2.80-3.17 million ounces, indicating a potential 3% decline at the midpoint due to rising operational costs [6] - The company generated $2.9 billion in free cash flow in 2025, marking a 204% year-over-year increase, and ended the year with $4.4 billion in liquidity [7] - AU's gold mineral reserves increased to 36.5 million ounces by the end of 2025, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth [8] Group 2: Harmony Gold (HMY) - Harmony Gold is South Africa's largest gold producer, with production of 724,099 ounces in the first half of fiscal 2026, on track to meet its guidance of 1.4 to 1.5 million ounces [9] - The company's adjusted EBITDA increased by 39% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2026 [11] - HMY has a diverse portfolio of gold development projects, including the Eva Copper project in Australia and the Wafi-Golpu project [12] - The company acquired the CSA Copper Mine in October 2025, which is the highest-grade copper mine in Australia [13] - HMY's all-in sustaining costs rose by 21% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2026, indicating inflationary pressures [14] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.18X and liquidity of $895 million at the end of December 2025 [15] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - AU's stock surged by 194.6% over the past year, significantly outperforming HMY's 28.7% increase [19] - HMY is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 5.68X, while AU is at 10.42X, both lower than their five-year medians [20] - Given the stronger price performance and upward estimate revisions for AU compared to HMY's downward trend, AU is viewed as a more attractive investment option [25]

Core Insights - First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) has seen a significant stock increase of 104.7% over the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 and industry growth rates of 1.3% and 75.6%, respectively [1][2]. Company Performance - AG's stock closed at $21.74, which is below its 52-week high of $32.04 but well above its 52-week low of $5.19 [2]. - The company has outperformed peers such as Avino Silver & Gold Mines (49% return) and Vizsla Silver Corp. (9.9% loss) during the same period [2]. Production and Demand Factors - Silver prices are expected to remain strong due to a persistent market deficit, high industrial demand in solar and AI sectors, and strong safe-haven demand, with electronics and solar energy accounting for over half of global silver demand [5]. - In Q4 2025, AG increased its total production to 7.8 million silver-equivalent (AgEq) ounces, which includes a record 4.2 million silver ounces and 41,417 gold ounces, reflecting a 37% year-over-year growth in AgEq ounces produced and a 77% surge in silver production [6]. - The company acquired a 70% interest in the Cerro Los Gatos Silver underground mine, enhancing its position as an intermediate primary silver producer [7]. Business Segments - AG's First Mint LLC business achieved record results in Q4 2025, with revenues increasing by 149.5% to $22.7 million, supported by the sale of 325,143 ounces of silver, which accounted for approximately 8% of the company's total silver production [8][9]. Operational Strength - AG operates four mines in Mexico, including Santa Elena, Los Gatos, San Dimas, and La Encantada, all of which are performing strongly despite tax-related issues, contributing significantly to total silver-equivalent ounces production [10]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AG's 2026 earnings has increased by 76.5% to $0.60 per share, while the estimate for 2027 earnings has risen by 82% to $1.11 per share [11]. Valuation Concerns - AG's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.72X, which is higher than the industry average of 16.88X and compared to Avino Silver's 26.37X [12]. Investment Outlook - AG's market leadership, strong operational performance, and acquired assets provide a competitive advantage to capitalize on long-term demand in silver and gold markets, supported by a solid pipeline of projects [14]. - Despite its high valuation, positive analyst sentiment and robust growth prospects suggest it may be an opportune time for potential investors to consider AG [15].

Core Insights - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) reported record revenues and significant year-over-year improvements in its fourth-quarter 2025 results, with total Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEO) production exceeding guidance [1][4][8] Financial Performance - WPM generated record revenues of approximately $865 million in Q4 2025, a 127.2% increase year-over-year, driven by a 69% rise in average realized gold equivalent prices and a 35% increase in GEOs sold [4][8] - The company achieved total revenues of $2.3 billion for 2025, an 80.2% increase year-over-year, with a bottom line increase of 178.4% in Q4 and 165% for the full year [8] - Average cash costs rose to $597 per GEO in Q4 2025 from $444 per GEO in the prior-year quarter, while cash operating margin increased 76% to $3,941 per GEO [8] Production Metrics - Gold production in Q4 increased by 10.4% year-over-year to 130,676 ounces, while silver production rose by 3.4% to 6,064 thousand ounces [5] - Attributable gold equivalent production for 2025 was 689,864 ounces, an 8.6% increase year-over-year, surpassing the guidance of 600,000-670,000 ounces [6][7] Future Outlook - WPM expects production of 860,000-940,000 GEOs in 2026, a 30.5% increase at the mid-point, supported by new assets and higher gold and silver prices [12] - The company anticipates a long-term production increase to 1,200,000 GEOs by 2030, driven by growth from operating and development assets [14] Cash Flow and Dividends - WPM reported $1.15 billion in cash at the end of 2025, up from $0.82 billion at the end of 2024, and a record operating cash flow of $1.9 billion compared to $1.03 billion in 2024 [9] - The company declared record annual dividends of 66 cents per share for 2025, with a 19.5 cents increase for Q1 2026, marking an 18% rise from Q4 [9] Market Position - WPM shares have surged 112.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 52.5% and the S&P 500's 24.6% [1] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 33.45X, a premium compared to the industry average of 13.59X [18][22]

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a ...

Market focus this week will be on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic news. Later today, the Feb ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall -1.1 to 51.5. On Wednesday, the Feb ADP employment change is expected to increase by +40,000. Also, the Feb ISM services index is expected to slip by -0.3 to 53.5. In addition, the Fed releases its Beige Book. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 215,000. Also, Q4 nonfarm productivity is expected to be up ...