U.S. budget uncertainty and Fed rate-cut hopes fuel safe-haven demand. ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have decreased by 2% due to a decline in safe-haven demand, reflecting an increased investor risk appetite for equities [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in gold prices marks a retreat from record highs [1] - The decline in gold prices is linked to changing market sentiments among investors [1]

The Philippine central bank should sell some of its “excessive” gold holdings with the precious metal set to retreat further from record highs as safe-haven demand eases, according to a policymaker https://t.co/87UVLnwCSU ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have rebounded by 1.2% after experiencing a significant decline of approximately 6% over the previous two sessions, indicating a shift in market sentiment from bullish enthusiasm to concerns about an overheating rally [1][2] - The recent price movements are influenced by the potential for a US-China trade deal, which could alleviate geopolitical tensions and impact demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Market Dynamics - A notable outflow from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) occurred, marking the largest single-day decline in holdings in five months, which coincided with the recent price slump [2] - Analysts suggest that the current behavior of gold prices resembles an elastic band that has been overstretched, indicating a technical reset rather than a fundamental shift, with safe-haven demand and the "debasement trade" remaining strong [3] Price Performance - Gold prices are currently holding firm above the $4,000 mark, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 55%, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - As of 9:55 a.m. in New York, gold edged higher to $4,148.91 per ounce, while silver rose by 1.9% after a previous decline of 7.6% [4] Platinum Market Insights - The London platinum market is experiencing significant tightness, with a premium exceeding $70 per ounce over New York futures prices, and lease rates have also spiked [5] - This tightness in the platinum market is attributed to China removing a tax exemption for a state-owned entity that dominates platinum imports, with the VAT rebate ending on November 1, allowing for potential tax-free sales at a premium for imports before that date [6]

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 23, with anticipated benefits from higher gold prices despite cost challenges [1][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.27 per share, reflecting a 56.8% year-over-year increase, while revenues are projected at $4.97 billion, indicating an 8% rise from the previous year [2] Earnings Performance - NEM has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 32.8% [3] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a high likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [4][5] Factors Influencing Q3 Results - Higher gold prices are expected to positively impact NEM's top line and margins, with average realized prices estimated at $3,357 per ounce, a 33.3% year-over-year increase [6][9] - The company's strategic focus on Tier 1 assets is anticipated to support growth, despite rising production costs [10] Market Conditions - Gold prices have surged approximately 17% in the third quarter and about 65% year-to-date, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and increased central bank purchases [8] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have further fueled the rally in gold prices [8] Cost Considerations - NEM is facing higher unit costs, with costs applicable to sales and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising around 6% and 2% year-over-year, respectively [11] - Sustaining capital spending is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter due to planned investments [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - NEM's shares have increased by 61.8% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 70.1% rise but outperforming the S&P 500's 16.3% increase [12] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.29, slightly below the peer group average of 15.49 [15] Investment Thesis - Newmont is positioned for growth with a strong project portfolio that is expected to enhance production capacity and extend mine life [19] - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited is anticipated to create significant shareholder value and synergies [19] - NEM's robust liquidity and cash flow generation capabilities support its growth initiatives and shareholder value [20] Conclusion - Investing in NEM stock ahead of its earnings announcement is seen as a compelling opportunity due to its strong market position, financial health, and favorable growth outlook [21]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday rose by +0.15%.  The dollar moved higher on Monday due to an easing of US-China trade tensions, which is positive for global growth prospects and the dollar after President Trump said on Sunday that, “I think we’re going to be fine with China.”   The dollar also has support as the alleged loan frauds impacting Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp appear to be confined and show no signs of contagion. Gains in the dollar were limited as Monday’s rally in stocks curbs ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also been a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim Wyckoff provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Economic Indicators - US MBA mortgage applications fell by -1.8% in the week ended October 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.7% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -1.0% [1] - The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage decreased by -1 basis point to 6.42% from 6.43% in the prior week [1] - The October Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index rose by +19.4 to 10.7, exceeding expectations of -1.8 [1] Trade and Market Reactions - The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China has led to increased demand for precious metals, with gold reaching a new all-time high [2] - Global bond markets have seen a decline in yields, with the 10-year German bund yield dropping to a 3.25-month low of 2.57% and the 10-year T-note yield falling to a 3.5-week low of 4.00% [2] - Stocks are rising following dovish comments from the Fed, with expectations for a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [3][8] Corporate Earnings - Better-than-expected quarterly earnings results have sparked a risk-on sentiment in equity markets, with notable gains in technology stocks, particularly chipmakers [5] - ASML Holding saw an increase of more than +3% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 new orders [5] - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reported solid Q3 earnings, with Morgan Stanley's FICC sales and trading revenue at $2.17 billion, above the consensus of $2.07 billion, and Bank of America's net interest income at $15.23 billion, exceeding the consensus of $15.03 billion [16][17] Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index rose by +1.01%, the Dow Jones by +0.64%, and the Nasdaq 100 by +1.40% [6] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [8] - European government bond yields are also declining, with the 10-year German bund yield down to a 3.25-month low [12] Sector Movements - Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Advanced Micro Devices up more than +7% [15] - Bunge Global SA is leading gains in the S&P 500 with an increase of more than +13% after projecting full-year adjusted EPS of $7.30 to $7.60 [16] - Dollar Tree is up more than +1% after projecting earnings per share to gain as much as 10% annually over the next three years [18]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at a record $4,130.90 per ounce on Tuesday, up 0.5% from Monday’s close of $4,108.60. The price of gold also rose in early trading to a record $4,190.90. The trade conflict between the U.S. and China ramped up Tuesday when Beijing prohibited business dealings with five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, a South Korean shipmaker. While the move follows President Trump’s escalated tariff threats, it continues a longer-running, industry-specific dispute between the two countries. U ...

Group 1 - The fundamentals for silver remain strong due to global geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand, easier central bank monetary policies, and increased hoarding of rare-earth minerals by major industrialized countries [1] - Recent price action in December silver futures indicates a bearish "key reversal" pattern, suggesting a potential near-term market top for silver [2] - Historical price patterns suggest that while current fundamentals are bullish, the major bull market run in silver may be nearing its end, as markets often price in expected future events ahead of time [6] Group 2 - Silver reached a high of $49.965 this week, surpassing the previous high of $49.52 set in 2011, marking a significant milestone in its price history [4] - Historical context shows that silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with past peaks followed by sharp declines, indicating potential risks for current price levels [5]