Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in tin futures prices, reaching a three-year high, driven by anticipated global shortages and supply-demand imbalances in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 18, tin futures surged by 2.88%, breaking previous highs and reaching 339,000 yuan per ton, marking a new three-year peak [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Guosen Securities predicts a notable global tin shortage of approximately 16,000 tons by 2025, with a tight balance expected post-full resumption of production in Myanmar [1]. - The supply-demand gap is expected to narrow in 2026 and beyond as Myanmar gradually resumes production and new projects come online [1]. - The scarcity of tin resources is likely to deepen due to a global decline in ore grades and relatively low capital expenditures [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - CICC identifies tin as one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years projected for 2024 [1]. - Major tin resource areas are highly developed, and many key supply regions are expected to have static reserve-to-production ratios lower than those of 2022 [1]. - The demand for "safety stock" is becoming increasingly urgent amid a backdrop of de-globalization, alongside traditional and AI-driven demand [1]. - Global supply from the three main producing regions is under pressure, with limited elasticity in recycled tin supply [1]. - The supply-demand balance remains tight, with strong vulnerabilities in supply, leading to potential upward pressure on tin prices [1].