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STAG Industrial(STAG) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-12 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - STAG Industrial reported a 6.3% increase in core FFO per share for the year, reaching $2.55, and a 4.3% growth in same-store cash NOI [4][11] - The company achieved a cash credit loss of 22 basis points in 2025, with a retention rate of 75.8% for the quarter and 77.2% for the year [12][14] - The company raised its dividend by 4%, marking the largest increase since 2014, and modified the payment cadence from monthly to quarterly [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, STAG commenced 31 leases totaling 3 million sq ft, with cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 16.3% and 27.4%, respectively [11] - The company reported that 69% of the operating portfolio square feet expected to lease in 2026 has been addressed, projecting cash leasing spreads of 18%-20% for the year [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industrial supply backdrop improved, with deliveries down almost 35% compared to 2024, and STAG expects 180 million sq ft of deliveries in 2026 [5][14] - National vacancy rates are anticipated to peak in the first half of 2026, with an inflection point expected in the latter half of the year [5][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - STAG Industrial aims to capitalize on a record amount of square footage expiring in 2026, with a focus on maintaining high occupancy levels and positive rent growth [6][12] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions, with a guidance range of $350 million to $650 million for acquisition volume in 2026 [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding economic growth and tenant activity, noting that many business leaders are becoming more engaged [5][30] - The company anticipates that the leasing environment will improve, with expectations for net absorption to increase in 2026 [5][22] Other Important Information - STAG has a strong pipeline of $3.6 billion in potential transactions, indicating healthy market conditions for acquisitions [24] - The company is not planning to hold land for development opportunities in 2026 but is exploring phased developments for future growth [44][45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about leasing environment and occupancy guidance - Management acknowledged the potential for upside in leasing activity if the current momentum continues, despite budgeting for a 9-12 month lease-up period for rolling square footage [19][22] Question: Discussion on acquisition visibility and timing - Management indicated that while the first quarter is typically slower for acquisitions, they are underwriting more deals than in the previous year, with a strong pipeline [24] Question: Clarification on tenant activity and demand - Management confirmed that the current tenant activity reflects real demand, with increased interest from various sectors, including data centers [30][32] Question: Insights on development starts and appetite for new projects - Management expressed eagerness to start new speculative projects, contingent on sourcing opportunities and favorable returns [56] Question: Commentary on concessions and free rent trends - Management noted that concessions have remained stable, with minimal changes in tenant improvement requests, indicating a healthy leasing environment [60][62]