Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2020, which is up 100%, while Bitcoin is down 90% when priced in Bitcoin, highlighting the importance of the reference point [4][5] - Gold is up 50% year-to-date, while Bitcoin is up 35% year-to-date; however, over the past year, gold is up 50% and Bitcoin is up 100%; over five years, gold is up 100% and Bitcoin is up 1,000% [6][7] - Institutions are recognizing debasement, inflation, and currency manipulation, leading them to invest in Bitcoin and gold [9] - Gold and Bitcoin have been the top two performing assets globally, driven by the realization that governments will continue printing money [10] - Bitcoin's market cap is expected to surpass gold's, as digital assets tend to be larger than analog versions; currently, gold has a market cap of $26-27 trillion, while Bitcoin's is $2.5 trillion, approximately 10% of gold's [12][13] - Morgan Stanley's global investment committee suggests allocating 2-4% of portfolios to Bitcoin [16] - The average return of Bitcoin in Q4 since 2015 is 59%, approximately 60% [29] Institutional Adoption & Influence - Major banks and institutions are capitulating and embracing Bitcoin due to client demand [19][20] - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is their most profitable ETF, positioning BlackRock as a Bitcoin company [21][22][23] - Bitcoin has transitioned from a contrarian to a consensus trade, with figures like Paul Tudor Jones and Ken Griffin becoming bullish [24] Investment Strategies & Perspectives - Individuals are allocating more than 1% to Bitcoin, with some hedge fund managers holding 20% (15% gold, 5% Bitcoin) [25] - Investors should consider Bitcoin as a savings technology and a resilient asset, rather than just a trading position [27][53][55] - Investors should prepare for market downturns and allocate assets in a way that allows them to "sleep through a storm," balancing asymmetric upside with downside resilience [32][33][39][50] - Investors need to become investors to protect themselves from the effects of continuous money printing [51][52]

Market Trend & Investment Philosophy - Bitcoin is viewed as a simple savings technology, attracting investors due to the perception that central banks will continue printing money, thus driving its value up [1] - Bitcoin is becoming the hurdle rate in finance, outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500 when priced in Bitcoin [2] - Investors are increasingly buying Bitcoin as a "debasement trade," avoiding the complexities of traditional financial analysis [1] Supply Dynamics - A significant portion of Bitcoin is being taken into illiquid supply, suggesting long-term holding strategies among Bitcoin owners [4][5] - The increasing illiquid supply, coupled with rising demand, is expected to drive Bitcoin's price higher due to its finite supply [5][6] Competition & Comparison - Gold and Bitcoin are both seen as benefiting from currency debasement, with Bitcoin characterized as "gold with wings" due to its higher volatility and smaller market cap [7][8] - While gold has outperformed Bitcoin YTD (up 50% vs 33%), Bitcoin's average Q4 return since 2015 is 60% [7] - Over a 5-year period, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed gold (up 1,000% vs 100%) [8] Investor Demographics & Institutional Adoption - Gold investors tend to be older, including central banks and institutions, while Bitcoin adoption is growing among older demographics [9] - There is an aspiration within the Bitcoin community for central banks to eventually hold Bitcoin as part of their treasury reserves [10]