Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].

Have you ever thought about a question: Why does the United States always have a large and continuous trade deficit We have a powerful diagram I have calculated the current account balances of all countries in the world in the past 35 years In this diagram the top ones are surpluses, and the bottom ones are deficits. If we separate the US, China, Germany, Japan and oil-exporting countries, it is obvious that the United States at the bottom has held up the banner of trade deficit and carried it all by himsel ...