5 January 2026 | 5:03AM EST Equity Research AMERICAS CONSUMER CYCLICALS 2026 Outlook: Expect mid-income cohorts to outperform, while low-income cohort remains pressured Going into 2025, we expected Discretionary to outperform Staples, which largely came to fruition even though both the XLP and XLY lagged the broader S&P 500 last year. Consumer sentiment was weighed down by several challenges, including tariffs, immigration, geopolitical tensions, and layoffs among other factors, which drove weaker spending ...

Key Takeaways What the Fed's Move Could Do to Your Savings Rate Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to announce another quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday. That matters to anyone with cash in the bank, since the central bank's benchmark rate impacts what banks and credit unions are willing to pay on customer deposits. That means even a small shift is likely to ripple through to your savings account APY. If the Fed does indeed cut by a quarter point, savings and certificate of deposi ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of net worth as a financial measurement tool, advising against comparisons with others to maintain financial well-being [1][5][31] Group 1: Understanding Net Worth - Net worth is defined as the total assets minus total liabilities, providing a clearer picture of financial health than income alone [2][25] - A person with a high income but significant debt may be in worse financial shape than someone with a lower income and no debt [2][12] Group 2: Financial Benchmarks - Five key benchmarks are suggested to assess financial health: net worth, savings rate, debt-to-income ratio, retirement readiness, and liquidity/emergency funds [3][25] - Regular evaluations of financial health are recommended to identify gaps and make informed decisions [3][28] Group 3: Age-Based Financial Goals - Financial milestones are outlined, such as being debt-free by age 30 and maximizing retirement accounts by age 40, which can lead to a net worth exceeding a quarter million [5][6] - Retirement benchmarks suggest saving a multiple of annual salary by certain ages, but these should be tailored to individual circumstances [16][18] Group 4: Savings Rate and Debt Management - The savings rate is highlighted as a critical factor for wealth building, with recommendations to save at least 15% to 20% of gross income [9][11] - A debt-to-income ratio below 36% is considered healthy, while a high ratio can indicate financial stress [12][13] Group 5: Emergency Funds and Liquidity - Maintaining three to six months of essential expenses in an emergency fund is advised to ensure financial security [20][21] - Liquidity is crucial for avoiding forced sales of investments during market downturns, which can hinder wealth accumulation [23][24] Group 6: Long-Term Financial Strategy - A structured approach to financial priorities is recommended, starting with debt elimination, followed by building an emergency fund, and then maximizing retirement contributions [27][30] - Regular financial check-ins are encouraged to adapt to life changes and maintain a long-term perspective on wealth [28][30]

Core Insights - Many Americans feel that becoming a millionaire is unattainable, but it can be achieved through proper financial habits [1] Group 1: Financial Habits for Wealth Building - Tracking net worth monthly helps individuals understand their financial starting point and progress [3] - The average savings rate is around 4.3%, but aiming for 10%, 15%, or even 20% can significantly enhance retirement comfort and millionaire potential [4] - Avoiding spending on status symbols and instead investing that money can accelerate wealth accumulation [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Maximizing contributions to tax-advantaged retirement accounts, such as a Roth IRA, is crucial for long-term wealth growth [5][6] - The maximum contribution limit for a Roth IRA in 2025 is $7,000, or $8,000 for individuals aged 50 and older [5]

Savings Strategy - The recommendation is to increase the savings rate annually, even by small amounts [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].

Trade Deficit Analysis - The US has consistently held a large trade deficit, becoming the world's largest importer [1] - A country's trade balance equals total savings minus total investments, but this formula alone doesn't explain the root cause of trade deficits [7][10] - Exchange rates significantly impact trade; a 50% depreciation of the US dollar could eliminate the trade deficit overnight [15] - Persistent trade imbalances lead to automatic exchange rate adjustments through appreciation or depreciation [17] US Trade Deficit Specifics - The US trade deficit has been continuously expanding since the 1970s [3] - The continuous trade deficit in the US is not caused by the US government or central bank raising the dollar exchange rate [25] - The US has a long-term current account deficit combined with a financial and capital account surplus [32] - Continuous capital flows have made the USD appreciate, leading to the US trade deficit [33] Global Monetary System Impact - The US dollar's status as the world's currency and US government securities as a store of value are root causes of the persistent US trade deficit [44] - Central banks invest foreign exchange reserves into the US market, such as buying US Treasury bonds [39] - The better the US economy, the greater the trade deficit, as it attracts investment, appreciates the dollar, and increases the trade account deficit [42]