Hi~~ 来朋友们 今天我们来聊一个 神秘而又混乱的经济体 伊朗 说到伊朗 你可能首先就会想到的是 战乱 今年还刚刚跟以色列 展开了一场 迅速而又激烈的"十二日战争" 但其实伊朗这个经济体吧 它很有意思 它特别的诡异 它有独一无二的政体 又长期持续性的受到制裁 衍生出了一套畸形 但是又非常顽强的经济形态 还长出了两只伊朗版的"无形的手" 推动着它的经济齿轮 哎今天咱们就继续国家经济系列 看看伊朗是怎么一步一步走到今天 演变出了一套什么样复杂的政治结构 长出两只怎么样奇怪的手 我们一起走进这个夹缝中生存的国家 伊朗 其实伊朗还有一个非常好听的名字 叫"波斯" 你听伊朗感觉整天都是战乱 但是波斯 就是非常有异域风情 非常神秘 伊朗人也经常被叫做波斯人 他官方语言就是波斯语 当然伊朗它也是个多民族国家 不光有波斯人 但是主要是波斯人 这就跟中东大部分国家不一样了 他们一般说的都是阿拉伯语 时间来到了20世纪 也是石油争霸的时代 1900年 有一个叫达西的英国商人 得到了一份地质报告 就说波斯这个地区很有可能有石油 于是他就做了一个 他这辈子可能是最成功的决定 在1901年 那时候伊朗什么都还没挖出来的时候 就和当时 ...

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Hi~ 朋友们 咱们今天要用一系列非常精彩 而又经典的例子 来聊聊 这个资本围绕着期货的明争暗斗 这个资本围绕着期货的明争暗斗 一个这么正常的金融衍生品 为什么就能拉爆债市 拉爆股市 拉爆油价 这背后是什么逻辑 中国金融市场 有一个非常有名的"327事件" 一个普普通通的国债期货 仅仅8分钟的资本大战 8分钟啊 却引发了整个市场的巨震 导致大陆的国债期货暂停交易了18年 也可以说是 间接重塑了整个大陆的金融监管体系 这个"327事件"是发生在1995年的1月 有个代号为327的国债期货合约 这个期货本身其实没什么特别的 但是当时 财政部对国债 有一定的保值贴补的政策 贴息具体是多少 其实大家不知道 是财政部定的 所以市场上 对这个猜测就有很大的分歧 这就有很大的不确定性 于是就出现了两股对赌的势力 做多方 主要是中国经济开发信托投资公司 主要是中国经济开发信托投资公司 简称"中经开" 而重点是这个做空方 主要是万国证券 还有一个他拉来的同盟 辽宁国发集团 所以多头是"中经开" 空投是"万国"和"辽国发" 大家其实就在赌 接下来这个贴补 接下来这个贴补 会更高还是会更低 万国这边的分析呢 他比较确信这个保值贴补 ...

期货市场概述 - 期货市场是全球最大、最活跃的交易市场，成交面值甚至超过外汇市场 [1] - 期货合约是甲乙双方约定在未来特定时间以约定价格交易特定商品的合约 [1] - 期货最初用于商品供应商对冲风险，如小麦农商锁定未来卖出价，面粉厂锁定未来买入成本 [1] - 期货市场不仅追踪石油、大豆、黄金等大宗商品价格，还追踪股票、国债等虚拟资产和金融资产，甚至可以追踪股指等虚无指标 [1][2] 期货交易特点与应用 - 期货交易可用于对冲、投机，本质上是对未来价格的对赌，一切指标皆可期货化、交易化 [1][2] - 市场上绝大多数期货交易者不在交割日持有到期，而是在交割日前清仓 [2] - 期货产品主要包括利率类（如SOFR期货）、股票类（如股指期货）和大宗商品类 [2][3] - 期货交易具有高杠杆、易于做空和隐秘性三大特点 [3] 期货市场风险与案例 - 对冲基金利用期货市场进行投机，例如可可豆期货暴涨案例，对冲基金押注可可豆减产 [1] - 索罗斯利用期货做空英镑，通过期货市场放大攻击力，对现货市场产生压力，最终导致英镑崩盘 [4][5] - 亚洲金融危机中，空头们做空东南亚货币，与东南亚央行在外汇储备上进行博弈，核心战场也在期货市场 [5]

Stablecoin Market Overview - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to a stable asset, primarily the US dollar, with a 1:1 ratio, and are issued by private companies [1] - The two largest stablecoins are Tether (USDT), accounting for approximately 60% of the market, and USD Coin (USDC), issued by Circle, holding about 24% [1] - Stablecoin transaction volume in 2024 reached $276 trillion, surpassing the combined payment volume of Visa and Mastercard in 2024 [1] Regulatory Landscape - The US Senate passed the "GENIUS Act," a legislative proposal for stablecoins, though it is still a draft [1] - Hong Kong introduced the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill" which will take effect on August 1st, focusing on Hong Kong dollar stablecoins and piloting offshore Renminbi stablecoins [1] - Various countries are adopting different approaches: Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UAE are actively open; the US and EU are cautiously inclusive; and China mainland is explicitly restrictive [1] Key Drivers and Applications - Stablecoins offer benefits such as convenience, speed, and privacy, particularly in cross-border payments, with monthly cross-border payment applications reaching approximately $50 billion and growing at 20%-30% per month [1] - Stablecoins are used in countries with high inflation as a digital dollar alternative, such as Argentina, Nigeria, and Brazil [1] - The rise of stablecoins and decentralized finance represents "financial disintermediation," potentially impacting banks and payment companies [1] Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Tether's profit in the past year was $13 billion with only 100+ employees, due to interest earned from investing the dollar reserves backing USDT [1] - Circle's growth is heavily reliant on exchanges, with over $1 billion of its $168 billion in interest income in 2024 being distributed to exchanges as incentives [1] - OKX paid $84 million in fines and forfeited $42 billion in revenue to comply with regulations, demonstrating the importance of regulatory compliance for cryptocurrency exchanges [1] US Strategy and Geopolitical Implications - The US aims to maintain and strengthen the dollar's dominance by promoting dollar-backed stablecoins [1] - The US government views stablecoins as a way to increase demand for US Treasury bonds, although the impact is primarily on short-term bonds [1] - The US seeks to secure its position in the cryptocurrency world by enacting legislation and promoting the standardization of stablecoins [1]

A-Share Listing Overview - A-share market has stricter supervision and audits compared to Hong Kong and US stocks due to a higher proportion of retail investors with limited screening capabilities [1] - A-share listings have "invisible thresholds" that are much higher than the explicit requirements specified by exchanges [1] - A-share market offers a liquidity premium of 20% to 30% compared to Hong Kong stocks due to higher trading volume, leading to higher valuations [1] - A-share listing process involves three stages: application, review (by the exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission), and issuance [2] Listing Requirements and Preferences - Science and Technology Innovation Board requires a three-year revenue compound growth rate of over 25% or recent revenue exceeding 300 million yuan, along with R&D expense requirements [1] - A-share market favors companies needing funds for production (e g, professional equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing) or R&D (e g, software, information technology) [3] - Companies seeking A-share listing, especially on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, must align with national strategies, such as promoting science and technology innovation and hard technology [3] Insta360 (IArashi Vision Inc.) Case Study - Insta360's prospectus highlighted its alignment with the national strategy by showcasing its panoramic technology, anti-shake technology, and AI image processing technology [3] - Insta360 planned to use the raised funds (originally expecting 460 million yuan, ultimately raising 19 billion yuan) for building a production base (190 million yuan) and an R&D center (270 million yuan) [3] - Insta360's IPO issue price was 47 yuan, and the stock price rose by 285% at the opening [7][8] Regulatory Environment - China's capital market is shifting from increasing scale to improving quality, emphasizing profitability, dividend payouts, and stricter supervision following the new "Nine National Regulations" [13][14][15] - The registration system for A-shares, while aiming for transparency, still involves substantive review and is stricter compared to US and Hong Kong stocks [5] - Intermediary institutions (investment banks, law firms, accounting firms) play a crucial role in the listing process and bear significant responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the disclosed information [2][4]

Business Model & Revenue Streams - MrBeast leveraged online traffic and personal IP to attract capital and generate substantial cash flow [1] - Amazon invested $100 million in MrBeast's large-scale game reality show [1] - Feastables (chocolate brand) annual revenue surpasses hundreds of millions of dollars, exceeding YouTube channel ad revenue [1][6] - Feastables accounts for approximately 40% of total revenue, while Adsense contributes about 10%, and brand deals around 15% [6] Content Strategy & Audience Engagement - MrBeast's main YouTube channel averages over 200 million views per video with a production cost of $4 million per video [1] - The company reinvests almost all earnings from each video into making the next one, spending approximately $4-5 million per video including employee costs [4] - Key content elements include wild concepts, fast-paced editing, and high production costs [4] - The company emphasizes data-driven content creation, focusing on audience retention as the most important metric [5][6] Team & Talent Management - MrBeast trained a close associate (Tyler) for years to replicate his content creation approach and eventually delegate responsibilities [7] - The company prioritizes hiring individuals with coachability, obsession with their role, and a long-term career mindset [8] Channel Growth & Diversification - MrBeast's main channel has grown from 1 million subscribers in 2017 to over 100 million [4] - The company operates multiple side channels, including gaming, react, and charity channels, along with a TikTok account with over 60 million followers [6]

Trade Deficit Analysis - The US has consistently held a large trade deficit, becoming the world's largest importer [1] - A country's trade balance equals total savings minus total investments, but this formula alone doesn't explain the root cause of trade deficits [7][10] - Exchange rates significantly impact trade; a 50% depreciation of the US dollar could eliminate the trade deficit overnight [15] - Persistent trade imbalances lead to automatic exchange rate adjustments through appreciation or depreciation [17] US Trade Deficit Specifics - The US trade deficit has been continuously expanding since the 1970s [3] - The continuous trade deficit in the US is not caused by the US government or central bank raising the dollar exchange rate [25] - The US has a long-term current account deficit combined with a financial and capital account surplus [32] - Continuous capital flows have made the USD appreciate, leading to the US trade deficit [33] Global Monetary System Impact - The US dollar's status as the world's currency and US government securities as a store of value are root causes of the persistent US trade deficit [44] - Central banks invest foreign exchange reserves into the US market, such as buying US Treasury bonds [39] - The better the US economy, the greater the trade deficit, as it attracts investment, appreciates the dollar, and increases the trade account deficit [42]

Business Model & Revenue Streams - The channel's revenue is primarily divided into four parts: advertising, YouTube ad revenue, book royalties, and commercial activities [5][6] - Book royalties typically range from 8% to 12% of the book price, depending on the author's influence [8] - YouTube ad revenue is influenced by video views and the average watch time, with longer videos potentially generating more revenue [14] - Advertising models include direct ad insertions within content and customized ads that integrate business information into the channel's regular content style [15][17] Content Creation & Team Structure - The content creation team is small, consisting of single-digit members, with roles in content writing, post-production, business development, and operations [24][25] - The production cycle for a single video is approximately two weeks, involving topic selection, research, script writing, recording, and editing [26] - The channel prioritizes creating systematic and long-term useful content, aiming to build a "knowledge tree" for viewers [28][29] - The channel focuses on building trust with its audience by consistently meeting or exceeding their expectations with each video [31] Future Plans & Challenges - The channel is not currently considering live streaming, membership channels, or online courses due to time and resource constraints [21][22] - Recruiting content creators is a challenge, potentially due to the specialized skills required for personal media that are not typically taught in formal education [35] - The channel aims to maintain a balance between creating valuable content and incorporating advertisements, controlling the frequency and proportion of ads [18]

Business Model & Growth Strategy - Mixue's average transaction value is less than 8 yuan, but annual revenue exceeds 10 billion yuan [1] - Mixue has 36,000 chain stores globally, ranking fourth worldwide, surpassing many established brands [2][17] - The company focuses on the market below 10 yuan, establishing a unique presence through affordability [3] - Mixue achieved rapid growth by building its own warehousing and logistics center, offering free transportation to franchisees [15][16] - By the end of 2020, the number of stores exceeded 10,000, and by the end of 2021, it exceeded 20,000 [16] Supply Chain Management - Mixue was one of the first in the milk tea industry to build its own central factory in 2012 [12] - The company reduces costs by building factories in the place of origin, such as Snow King Agriculture in Anyue County, Sichuan, for Eureka lemons [13][14] - Upstream ingredients cover 35 countries, including milk from New Zealand, cocoa from Ghana, and cheese from Denmark [16] - 98% of Mixue's revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 (over 15 billion yuan) comes from sales of goods and equipment to franchisees [18] Brand Building & IP Strategy - Mixue created the Snow King IP to build brand perception, avoiding celebrity endorsements [24] - In 2019, they designed a theme song for Snow King, which became popular with over 30,000 stores playing it [25] - Mixue launched an animation called Snow King Arrives, with views exceeding 200 million and a rating of 9.9% on Bilibili [25] - The company established Snow King Loves Animation to further develop its IP through movies, performances, and cultural communication [27][33] Market Position & Future Challenges - Mixue is the largest ready-made tea drink in the Southeast Asian market [17] - The company's cooperation model with franchisees, selling products without sharing profits, may need to be adjusted for long-term development [20][21] - Challenges include expanding into developed countries and maintaining its leading position in the competitive milk tea industry [35]