Sanctions Overview - Sanctions are a form of coercion aimed at compelling behavioral changes through economic disruption [1] - Economic sanctions are generally a means to achieve objectives like policy change, regime change, counter-terrorism, or human rights improvements [1][2] - The effectiveness of sanctions in achieving their intended goals is historically low, with success rates estimated at less than 10% [2] Country-Specific Sanction Strategies and Impacts - **Cuba:** The US has maintained a long-standing embargo against Cuba, employing trade blockades and asset freezes, but its effectiveness has been limited due to support from other nations [1] - **Venezuela:** US sanctions on Venezuela, particularly targeting the state-owned oil company PDVSA, have severely impacted the country's economy by restricting access to financial markets and reducing oil revenues [2] - **North Korea:** The UN has imposed extensive sanctions on North Korea due to its nuclear weapons program, but North Korea's self-imposed isolation and illicit activities have reduced the impact of these measures [3] - **Iran:** The US has employed both primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, targeting its nuclear program and energy sector, leading to economic hardship and prompting negotiations at times [4][5] - **Russia:** Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced unprecedented sanctions, including asset freezes, SWIFT restrictions, and trade limitations, significantly impacting its economy [6] Sanction Mechanisms and Countermeasures - **Trade Blockades and Asset Freezes:** These are classic economic sanction tools used to prevent trade and freeze assets within the sanctioning country [1] - **Secondary Sanctions:** These involve threatening entities in other countries to prevent them from doing business with the sanctioned country, increasing the pressure [5] - **Circumventing Sanctions:** Sanctioned countries often seek alternative buyers, engage in smuggling, develop shadow banking systems, or use cyber warfare to mitigate the impact of sanctions [3][4][6] Unintended Consequences and Ethical Considerations - Sanctions often disproportionately affect the general population of the sanctioned country, leading to humanitarian crises and potentially strengthening authoritarian regimes [3][7] - The use of sanctions can lead to "sanction fatigue," where the initial impact diminishes over time as sanctioned countries adapt and find alternative solutions [7]

Hi~ 朋友们 不知道你有没有意识到 美元今年是跌惨了 上半年是近半个世纪 表现最差的一年 从年初到现在 美元指数已经下跌了超过10% 你别觉得10%没多少啊 这可是美元 不是什么比特币 这是全球资产的标尺 这个尺子半年里头缩短了10% 约等于所有人都长高了10% 与此同时 全球的资产价格都出现了久违的爆发 最猛的就是黄金 你就看这张图 这是过去半个世纪黄金的走势 我只能用疯狂来形容 比特币也是创出了新高 也疯狂 不过它可能一直都挺疯狂 除此之外 全球的股市也是 什么美股 欧股 A股 港股 日股 它全涨 事出反常必有妖 这个妖在哪里 咱们今天就来看看 这个美元暴跌的背后 今天呢 我来跟大家来一个专业一点 但同时又很直观很有意思的方式来聊 就是看图说话 来先看几张图 这个是美元指数 而这个是美股标普500指数 你看啊 之前股市跟美元相关性还是非常高的 大家是一起涨一起跌 但你看这两个人 手拉手高高兴兴共振着呢 怎么5月份开始 刚振到一半 股票就说哎 "算了不跟你玩了" 自己跑了 美元一个人孤零零的留在了底下 我再给你看个共振得更happy的 这个是美元指数 和美国10年期国债利率的共振 也是之前玩的好好的 5月 ...

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Hi~~ 来朋友们 今天我们来聊一个 神秘而又混乱的经济体 伊朗 说到伊朗 你可能首先就会想到的是 战乱 今年还刚刚跟以色列 展开了一场 迅速而又激烈的"十二日战争" 但其实伊朗这个经济体吧 它很有意思 它特别的诡异 它有独一无二的政体 又长期持续性的受到制裁 衍生出了一套畸形 但是又非常顽强的经济形态 还长出了两只伊朗版的"无形的手" 推动着它的经济齿轮 哎今天咱们就继续国家经济系列 看看伊朗是怎么一步一步走到今天 演变出了一套什么样复杂的政治结构 长出两只怎么样奇怪的手 我们一起走进这个夹缝中生存的国家 伊朗 其实伊朗还有一个非常好听的名字 叫"波斯" 你听伊朗感觉整天都是战乱 但是波斯 就是非常有异域风情 非常神秘 伊朗人也经常被叫做波斯人 他官方语言就是波斯语 当然伊朗它也是个多民族国家 不光有波斯人 但是主要是波斯人 这就跟中东大部分国家不一样了 他们一般说的都是阿拉伯语 时间来到了20世纪 也是石油争霸的时代 1900年 有一个叫达西的英国商人 得到了一份地质报告 就说波斯这个地区很有可能有石油 于是他就做了一个 他这辈子可能是最成功的决定 在1901年 那时候伊朗什么都还没挖出来的时候 就和当时 ...

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Hi~ 朋友们 咱们今天要用一系列非常精彩 而又经典的例子 来聊聊 这个资本围绕着期货的明争暗斗 这个资本围绕着期货的明争暗斗 一个这么正常的金融衍生品 为什么就能拉爆债市 拉爆股市 拉爆油价 这背后是什么逻辑 中国金融市场 有一个非常有名的"327事件" 一个普普通通的国债期货 仅仅8分钟的资本大战 8分钟啊 却引发了整个市场的巨震 导致大陆的国债期货暂停交易了18年 也可以说是 间接重塑了整个大陆的金融监管体系 这个"327事件"是发生在1995年的1月 有个代号为327的国债期货合约 这个期货本身其实没什么特别的 但是当时 财政部对国债 有一定的保值贴补的政策 贴息具体是多少 其实大家不知道 是财政部定的 所以市场上 对这个猜测就有很大的分歧 这就有很大的不确定性 于是就出现了两股对赌的势力 做多方 主要是中国经济开发信托投资公司 主要是中国经济开发信托投资公司 简称"中经开" 而重点是这个做空方 主要是万国证券 还有一个他拉来的同盟 辽宁国发集团 所以多头是"中经开" 空投是"万国"和"辽国发" 大家其实就在赌 接下来这个贴补 接下来这个贴补 会更高还是会更低 万国这边的分析呢 他比较确信这个保值贴补 ...

期货市场概述 - 期货市场是全球最大、最活跃的交易市场，成交面值甚至超过外汇市场 [1] - 期货合约是甲乙双方约定在未来特定时间以约定价格交易特定商品的合约 [1] - 期货最初用于商品供应商对冲风险，如小麦农商锁定未来卖出价，面粉厂锁定未来买入成本 [1] - 期货市场不仅追踪石油、大豆、黄金等大宗商品价格，还追踪股票、国债等虚拟资产和金融资产，甚至可以追踪股指等虚无指标 [1][2] 期货交易特点与应用 - 期货交易可用于对冲、投机，本质上是对未来价格的对赌，一切指标皆可期货化、交易化 [1][2] - 市场上绝大多数期货交易者不在交割日持有到期，而是在交割日前清仓 [2] - 期货产品主要包括利率类（如SOFR期货）、股票类（如股指期货）和大宗商品类 [2][3] - 期货交易具有高杠杆、易于做空和隐秘性三大特点 [3] 期货市场风险与案例 - 对冲基金利用期货市场进行投机，例如可可豆期货暴涨案例，对冲基金押注可可豆减产 [1] - 索罗斯利用期货做空英镑，通过期货市场放大攻击力，对现货市场产生压力，最终导致英镑崩盘 [4][5] - 亚洲金融危机中，空头们做空东南亚货币，与东南亚央行在外汇储备上进行博弈，核心战场也在期货市场 [5]

Stablecoin Market Overview - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to a stable asset, primarily the US dollar, with a 1:1 ratio, and are issued by private companies [1] - The two largest stablecoins are Tether (USDT), accounting for approximately 60% of the market, and USD Coin (USDC), issued by Circle, holding about 24% [1] - Stablecoin transaction volume in 2024 reached $276 trillion, surpassing the combined payment volume of Visa and Mastercard in 2024 [1] Regulatory Landscape - The US Senate passed the "GENIUS Act," a legislative proposal for stablecoins, though it is still a draft [1] - Hong Kong introduced the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill" which will take effect on August 1st, focusing on Hong Kong dollar stablecoins and piloting offshore Renminbi stablecoins [1] - Various countries are adopting different approaches: Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UAE are actively open; the US and EU are cautiously inclusive; and China mainland is explicitly restrictive [1] Key Drivers and Applications - Stablecoins offer benefits such as convenience, speed, and privacy, particularly in cross-border payments, with monthly cross-border payment applications reaching approximately $50 billion and growing at 20%-30% per month [1] - Stablecoins are used in countries with high inflation as a digital dollar alternative, such as Argentina, Nigeria, and Brazil [1] - The rise of stablecoins and decentralized finance represents "financial disintermediation," potentially impacting banks and payment companies [1] Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Tether's profit in the past year was $13 billion with only 100+ employees, due to interest earned from investing the dollar reserves backing USDT [1] - Circle's growth is heavily reliant on exchanges, with over $1 billion of its $168 billion in interest income in 2024 being distributed to exchanges as incentives [1] - OKX paid $84 million in fines and forfeited $42 billion in revenue to comply with regulations, demonstrating the importance of regulatory compliance for cryptocurrency exchanges [1] US Strategy and Geopolitical Implications - The US aims to maintain and strengthen the dollar's dominance by promoting dollar-backed stablecoins [1] - The US government views stablecoins as a way to increase demand for US Treasury bonds, although the impact is primarily on short-term bonds [1] - The US seeks to secure its position in the cryptocurrency world by enacting legislation and promoting the standardization of stablecoins [1]

A-Share Listing Overview - A-share market has stricter supervision and audits compared to Hong Kong and US stocks due to a higher proportion of retail investors with limited screening capabilities [1] - A-share listings have "invisible thresholds" that are much higher than the explicit requirements specified by exchanges [1] - A-share market offers a liquidity premium of 20% to 30% compared to Hong Kong stocks due to higher trading volume, leading to higher valuations [1] - A-share listing process involves three stages: application, review (by the exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission), and issuance [2] Listing Requirements and Preferences - Science and Technology Innovation Board requires a three-year revenue compound growth rate of over 25% or recent revenue exceeding 300 million yuan, along with R&D expense requirements [1] - A-share market favors companies needing funds for production (e g, professional equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing) or R&D (e g, software, information technology) [3] - Companies seeking A-share listing, especially on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, must align with national strategies, such as promoting science and technology innovation and hard technology [3] Insta360 (IArashi Vision Inc.) Case Study - Insta360's prospectus highlighted its alignment with the national strategy by showcasing its panoramic technology, anti-shake technology, and AI image processing technology [3] - Insta360 planned to use the raised funds (originally expecting 460 million yuan, ultimately raising 19 billion yuan) for building a production base (190 million yuan) and an R&D center (270 million yuan) [3] - Insta360's IPO issue price was 47 yuan, and the stock price rose by 285% at the opening [7][8] Regulatory Environment - China's capital market is shifting from increasing scale to improving quality, emphasizing profitability, dividend payouts, and stricter supervision following the new "Nine National Regulations" [13][14][15] - The registration system for A-shares, while aiming for transparency, still involves substantive review and is stricter compared to US and Hong Kong stocks [5] - Intermediary institutions (investment banks, law firms, accounting firms) play a crucial role in the listing process and bear significant responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the disclosed information [2][4]