Hi～ 朋友们 今天我们来聊一聊 赌 球 赌球 对于很多人来说 应该是一个既熟悉又陌生的词汇 你看新闻里头 经常跟犯罪 洗钱 操控比赛 高利贷等等联系在一起 2018年世界杯期间 北京警方 查出一特大网络赌球犯罪团伙 抓获违法犯罪嫌疑人46名 涉赌流水资金超过3.2%亿元 2025年土耳其爆出重大裁判赌球案 它联赛当中571名裁判当中 有371人涉嫌操纵比赛 2015年 北美跨国犯罪集团 ODOG Enterprise被FBI端掉 创始人欧文·汉森涉及体育博彩 毒品走私 洗钱等 被判处225个月的有期徒刑 你看看 类似的案子可以说是比比皆是 而这些呢 其实都是 全球体育博彩行业的冰山一角 据估算 2024年 全球体育博彩行业的总下注额 超过了1.5%万亿美元 智能手机市场已经够大了吧 是它的3倍 赌球 是不是一听就感觉是违法的 跟洗钱感觉差不多 其实咱们今天要聊的呢 确切来说是 体育博彩 这个是不是一听就好多了 这里头呢有线上的线下的 有赌球 有赌马 有赌场 博彩平台 也包括体育彩票 其实吧绝大多数的国家和地区 都是有一些 合法的渠道去允许体育博彩 你就比如说美国 2018年之前 全国范围除了拉斯维加斯 几乎 ...

朋友们 你知道GDP它也是可以骗人的吗 前两天我查那个伊朗经济的时候 我就想看看它的人均GDP 我一看哎 80 年代起来了一波 然后不行了 2000 年之后又大涨 然后又不行了 但是你以为 这就是伊朗真实的人均GDP情况了吗 我仔细一搜这个人均GDP 发现有这么多选项 我要是点开这个哎 伊朗人均GDP就长这样了 好家伙 1970 年代伊朗革命之前 就是它最高峰了 到现在都没有那时候高 我要是点开这个呢 它变成了这样 最离谱的啊 我要是点开这个 得伊朗人均GDP变成这样了 咱要是按照这张图分析伊朗经济 那他还不得人人都是马斯克 我跟你说啊 这些都是世界银行统计出来的数据 准不准 咱不保准 但是他一定够官方 你说说 GDP 可以说是衡量各国经济 最最最最最常用的指标了 你以为它就是个数 不会骗人 但是呢却有这么多版本 就好像卢沟桥的狮子一样 大小不一 形态各异的 这背后的门道可不简单 咱们今天就来聊聊这个 你以为你最熟悉的 但实际上 非常会骗人的经济指标 GDP GDP Gross Domestic Product 国内 生产 总值 你看名字就挺清晰的 就是在特定时期里 一个国家或者一个区域内 生产的所有最终产品 ...

Sanctions Overview - Sanctions are a form of coercion aimed at compelling behavioral changes through economic disruption [1] - Economic sanctions are generally a means to achieve objectives like policy change, regime change, counter-terrorism, or human rights improvements [1][2] - The effectiveness of sanctions in achieving their intended goals is historically low, with success rates estimated at less than 10% [2] Country-Specific Sanction Strategies and Impacts - **Cuba:** The US has maintained a long-standing embargo against Cuba, employing trade blockades and asset freezes, but its effectiveness has been limited due to support from other nations [1] - **Venezuela:** US sanctions on Venezuela, particularly targeting the state-owned oil company PDVSA, have severely impacted the country's economy by restricting access to financial markets and reducing oil revenues [2] - **North Korea:** The UN has imposed extensive sanctions on North Korea due to its nuclear weapons program, but North Korea's self-imposed isolation and illicit activities have reduced the impact of these measures [3] - **Iran:** The US has employed both primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, targeting its nuclear program and energy sector, leading to economic hardship and prompting negotiations at times [4][5] - **Russia:** Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced unprecedented sanctions, including asset freezes, SWIFT restrictions, and trade limitations, significantly impacting its economy [6] Sanction Mechanisms and Countermeasures - **Trade Blockades and Asset Freezes:** These are classic economic sanction tools used to prevent trade and freeze assets within the sanctioning country [1] - **Secondary Sanctions:** These involve threatening entities in other countries to prevent them from doing business with the sanctioned country, increasing the pressure [5] - **Circumventing Sanctions:** Sanctioned countries often seek alternative buyers, engage in smuggling, develop shadow banking systems, or use cyber warfare to mitigate the impact of sanctions [3][4][6] Unintended Consequences and Ethical Considerations - Sanctions often disproportionately affect the general population of the sanctioned country, leading to humanitarian crises and potentially strengthening authoritarian regimes [3][7] - The use of sanctions can lead to "sanction fatigue," where the initial impact diminishes over time as sanctioned countries adapt and find alternative solutions [7]

Market Trends and Industry Dynamics - The dollar index has fallen by over 10% since the beginning of the year, marking its worst performance in nearly half a century [1] - Global asset prices, including gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, have experienced a significant surge [1] - Global stock markets, including US, European, A-shares, Hong Kong, and Japanese stocks, have generally increased [1] - The correlation between the S&P 500 index and a "mysterious index" reached a high of 824% over the past 5 years [1] Investment Opportunities and Potential Risks - The primary driver of the dollar's decline is risk, particularly related to Trump's tariff policies and concerns about the US government's creditworthiness [1] - Foreign capital inflows into US stock ETFs have increasingly been hedged against dollar risk, with over 80% of funds now employing hedging strategies [1] - Gold has become a preferred safe-haven asset, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, especially from North America [2] - Market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are heavily influencing the dollar's movements [2] US Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - The market is closely monitoring US non-farm payroll (NFP) data to anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2] - There have been substantial revisions to the NFP data, raising concerns about its accuracy and reliability [3] - Trump's administration is attempting to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the central bank's independence [3][4] Global Economic Impact - A weaker dollar and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to benefit other countries, particularly developing nations [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar may depreciate by approximately 10% to around 91 by the end of next year [4]

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Political and Economic System - Iran operates under a unique theocratic republic, blending religious rule with democratic elements, where the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority [1][2] - Religious charities (Bonyads) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) exert significant control over Iran's economy, estimated at 20% and 30%-50% of GDP respectively, operating independently of government oversight and contributing to a complex power structure [4][5] - The Supreme Leader directly controls key institutions, including the judiciary, military, and media, ensuring religious authority's dominance over elected bodies [1] Economic Challenges and Strategies - Heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with oil exports accounting for 90% of government revenue, Iran faces significant economic pressure from international sanctions, particularly targeting its energy sector [4] - To circumvent sanctions, Iran employs a "Ghost Fleet" of aging tankers to secretly transport oil, engaging in ship-to-ship transfers and other deceptive practices [3] - Iran's economy suffers from high inflation, exceeding 30% in recent years, exacerbated by government subsidies, particularly for energy, which accounted for 27% of its GDP in 2022, equivalent to $100 billion [5] Key Industries and Trade - Despite economic challenges, Iran has developed a significant automotive industry, ranking as the 12th largest globally and accounting for 10% of its GDP [5][6] - Iran is a major producer and exporter of high-value agricultural products and handicrafts, including caviar, saffron, pistachios, and carpets [6] - The country's complex multi-exchange rate system, designed to manage inflation and trade, has been prone to corruption and arbitrage, leading to its eventual abandonment [5] International Relations and Sanctions - Iran's foreign policy is driven by its Shiite Islamic ideology, leading to support for regional allies and confrontation with adversaries, particularly the United States and Israel [2] - US sanctions, intensified since 2010 and further tightened after the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, have significantly impacted Iran's GDP and oil exports [3] - The "Twelve Day War" with Israel in June 2025 and subsequent attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have further escalated tensions and economic challenges [6]

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Hi~ 朋友们 咱们今天要用一系列非常精彩 而又经典的例子 来聊聊 这个资本围绕着期货的明争暗斗 这个资本围绕着期货的明争暗斗 一个这么正常的金融衍生品 为什么就能拉爆债市 拉爆股市 拉爆油价 这背后是什么逻辑 中国金融市场 有一个非常有名的"327事件" 一个普普通通的国债期货 仅仅8分钟的资本大战 8分钟啊 却引发了整个市场的巨震 导致大陆的国债期货暂停交易了18年 也可以说是 间接重塑了整个大陆的金融监管体系 这个"327事件"是发生在1995年的1月 有个代号为327的国债期货合约 这个期货本身其实没什么特别的 但是当时 财政部对国债 有一定的保值贴补的政策 贴息具体是多少 其实大家不知道 是财政部定的 所以市场上 对这个猜测就有很大的分歧 这就有很大的不确定性 于是就出现了两股对赌的势力 做多方 主要是中国经济开发信托投资公司 主要是中国经济开发信托投资公司 简称"中经开" 而重点是这个做空方 主要是万国证券 还有一个他拉来的同盟 辽宁国发集团 所以多头是"中经开" 空投是"万国"和"辽国发" 大家其实就在赌 接下来这个贴补 接下来这个贴补 会更高还是会更低 万国这边的分析呢 他比较确信这个保值贴补 ...

期货市场概述 - 期货市场是全球最大、最活跃的交易市场，成交面值甚至超过外汇市场 [1] - 期货合约是甲乙双方约定在未来特定时间以约定价格交易特定商品的合约 [1] - 期货最初用于商品供应商对冲风险，如小麦农商锁定未来卖出价，面粉厂锁定未来买入成本 [1] - 期货市场不仅追踪石油、大豆、黄金等大宗商品价格，还追踪股票、国债等虚拟资产和金融资产，甚至可以追踪股指等虚无指标 [1][2] 期货交易特点与应用 - 期货交易可用于对冲、投机，本质上是对未来价格的对赌，一切指标皆可期货化、交易化 [1][2] - 市场上绝大多数期货交易者不在交割日持有到期，而是在交割日前清仓 [2] - 期货产品主要包括利率类（如SOFR期货）、股票类（如股指期货）和大宗商品类 [2][3] - 期货交易具有高杠杆、易于做空和隐秘性三大特点 [3] 期货市场风险与案例 - 对冲基金利用期货市场进行投机，例如可可豆期货暴涨案例，对冲基金押注可可豆减产 [1] - 索罗斯利用期货做空英镑，通过期货市场放大攻击力，对现货市场产生压力，最终导致英镑崩盘 [4][5] - 亚洲金融危机中，空头们做空东南亚货币，与东南亚央行在外汇储备上进行博弈，核心战场也在期货市场 [5]