Core Insights - U.S.–Mexico cross-border freight is expected to be a stabilizing factor in North American logistics for 2026, according to Uber Freight executives [1] - Despite challenges in the broader U.S. trucking market, sustained cross-border demand is influencing how shippers and carriers prepare for the upcoming year [2] Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - There has been a 15% increase in exports from Mexico to the U.S., indicating that customers are stabilizing their imports and adapting to new tariff conditions [3] Market Conditions - The U.S. trucking market is tightening due to sustained carrier exits and historically low orders for tractors and trailers, with spot rates recently increasing by over 10% [4] - Spot rates are currently near operating costs on a per-mile basis, but carriers are still running below break-even on loaded miles due to approximately 15% of miles being non-revenue-generating [5] Capacity and Fleet Management - Tractor and trailer orders are down by double digits year-over-year, indicating limited near-term fleet expansion and contributing to tighter market conditions during peak periods [6] - The current peak season is tighter than the previous year, and uncertainty about market changes in the upcoming year suggests that shippers should adopt a scenario planning approach rather than relying on a single forecast [7]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in key economic data, including the September jobs report, which is expected to heighten volatility and reinforce the Federal Reserve's data-dependency dilemma [2][5] - U.S. employers added only 22,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [1][3] Business Confidence and Planning - Businesses rely on official data for hiring, investment, and pricing decisions; the shutdown-induced data blackout undermines confidence and increases planning risk [3][5] - CFOs are advised to prioritize agility in scenario planning to prepare for market volatility and disruptions to federal contracts and operations [5] Employment Trends - In August, employers announced 85,979 job cuts, the highest total for that month since 2020, reflecting a challenging employment landscape [3] - ADP reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, marking the first back-to-back monthly job losses since 2020 [4] Market Activity - E*TRADE reported that clients were net buyers across all 11 S&P 500 sectors in September, with consumer staples, utilities, and consumer discretionary sectors showing significant net buying activity [8][9] - Despite the defensive appearance of some buying activity, significant investments were made in nuclear power stocks and megacap stocks in the consumer discretionary sector [9] Risk Management Insights - Aon's Global Risk Management Survey indicates a rise in geopolitical volatility risks, now among the top 10 global risks, alongside cyber attacks and economic slowdown [11][12] - Only 14% of organizations track their exposure to the top 10 risks, highlighting a gap in risk management practices [12]