Core Viewpoint - Rare-earth stocks are gaining attention as China tightens export controls amid the trade war with the United States, prompting U.S. policymakers to focus on domestic mining and production to enhance manufacturing capabilities [1]. Group 1: MP Materials - MP Materials operates the only large-scale rare-earth mining and processing site in North America, specifically the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine in California, which is one of two major light rare-earth production facilities outside China [3]. - The Mountain Pass facility produces refined rare-earth oxides, particularly Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, essential for powerful magnets used in electric vehicles and consumer electronics [4]. - In July 2025, MP Materials halted all sales to China to align with U.S. national security goals, and its Independence Facility has started generating revenue, with plans for a significant expansion to increase U.S. magnet manufacturing capacity from 1,000 to 10,000 metric tons annually [5]. Group 2: The Metals Company - The Metals Company (TMC) is focused on seabed mining, aiming to extract polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, which could help secure critical minerals for the U.S. [6]. - TMC is targeting the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, located approximately 1,500 miles from San Diego, and has submitted the first application for a commercial recovery permit under the U.S. Seabed Mining Code [7].

Group 1 - TMC's stock experienced a significant increase of 47.7% in June, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which rose 5% and 6.6% respectively [1][2] - The rally in TMC's stock was supported by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - A major financing deal with Korea Zinc, involving $85.2 million for 19.6 million shares, was a key driver for the stock's surge [4][5] Group 2 - The investment deal with Korea Zinc included three-year warrants for an additional 6.9 million shares at $7 per share, which was initially seen as a premium valuation [4][5] - TMC's SEC filing on June 18 revealed a waiver on restrictions for stock warrants, allowing cashless exercises, which is expected to reduce share dilution for existing shareholders [6] - Despite a slight decline of approximately 2% in July, there has been no negative news affecting TMC, indicating a potential market correction after reaching high valuations [8] Group 3 - TMC's business outlook remains speculative, but recent developments, including an executive order from President Trump to expedite seabed mining permits, could create opportunities for the company [9]