Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the lead market will show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead has new capacity plans, but the rigid constraints of raw material supply will limit the supply growth rate, with more prominent constraints for recycled lead. On the demand side, although there is an expectation of seasonal recovery, the consumption front - loading driven by policies may slow down the growth rate. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a neutral level, and the lead price is expected to range from 16,800 to 18,000 yuan/ton, with the center moving up. During the seasonal consumption recovery period, the price may show strong upward momentum [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Lead Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely around the bottom area, ranging from 16,165 to 17,805 yuan/ton. By the end of June, the price closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 2.23% from the beginning of the year. LME lead fluctuated strongly in the first quarter and first declined then rose in the second quarter. By the end of June, it closed at 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 5.59% from the beginning of the year [8][9]. II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **2.1.1 Global Lead Concentrate Supply Recovering Slowly**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to May 2025, the domestic cumulative lead concentrate production was 633,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. It is expected that the overseas increment will be 100,000 tons and the domestic increment will be around 70,000 tons, with a global lead mine production growth rate of 2.3% to 4.62 million tons [10][12]. - **2.1.2 Lead Concentrate Processing Fees Remaining Low, Silver Concentrate Import Demand Increasing**: As of June 2025, the average domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 US dollars/dry ton respectively. In the second half of the year, the processing fees are expected to stabilize and may rise slightly in the fourth quarter. From January to May 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate import volume was 552,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected that the monthly import volume in the second half of the year will be between 130,000 and 150,000 tons. The import demand for silver concentrate is expected to remain high [20][21]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **2.2.1 Global Refined Lead Supply Growth Rate Moderate**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 4.3915 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26][28]. - **2.2.2 Stable Electrolytic Lead Production, Focus on New Project Commissioning in the Second Half of the Year**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative electrolytic lead production was 1.8902 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. It is expected that the annual electrolytic lead production will increase by 5.6% year - on - year to 3.8 million tons [31][32]. - **2.2.3 Profit and Raw Material Shortage Restraining Production, High Production Interference Rate in the Second Half of the Year**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative recycled refined lead production was 1.5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.35%. It is expected that the annual recycled refined lead production will be 3.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [37][39]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **2.3.1 Global Refined Lead Demand Situation**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons [44]. - **2.3.2 High Lead Battery Inventory, Focus on the Realization of the Traditional Consumption Peak Season in the Third Quarter**: In the first half of 2025, the lead battery enterprise start - up rate was slightly lower than the same period last year, and the finished product inventory and dealer inventory were at relatively high levels. In the second half of the year, the start - up rate is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the battery replacement demand will increase in the fourth quarter [51][57]. - **3.2.1 Unfavorable Shanghai - London Ratio for Lead Ingot and Battery Exports, Imports Supplementing Raw Material Ratio**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative net import volume of refined lead and lead products was 33,611 tons. In the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to rise in the third quarter and decline in the fourth quarter. The lead battery export volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year from January to May 2025, and the decline is expected to narrow in the second half of the year [58][59]. - **2.3.2.2 Policy - Guided Marginal Improvement in Lead Battery Consumption Prospect**: In the automotive sector, the replacement demand for lead batteries is stable, and the new demand is growing. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is strong, and the new standard implementation and subsidy policy will boost consumption. In the energy storage sector, the demand for lead batteries has growth potential [64][69]. 2.4 High Overseas Inventory, Neutral Domestic Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the LME lead inventory was at a high level, and the domestic inventory was at a neutral level. In the second half of the year, the overseas inventory is expected to remain high, and the domestic inventory is expected to rise, but the inventory accumulation pressure will be relieved by the constraints on recycled lead production [77]. III. Summary and Outlook for the Future - In the second half of the year, the lead market will show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead has new capacity plans, but the rigid constraints of raw material supply will limit the supply growth rate, with more prominent constraints for recycled lead. The consumption side has seasonal recovery expectations, but the consumption front - loading may slow down the growth rate. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a neutral level, and the lead price is expected to range from 16,800 to 18,000 yuan/ton, with the center moving up [80].