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Bracing for an increase in volatility for next three weeks, says Fairlead's Katie Stockton
Youtubeยท 2025-10-14 18:47
Market Sentiment and Volatility - A notable sentiment shift occurred, with the VIX moving above resistance around 18, which typically predicts an increase in volatility for up to three weeks [2][4] - The S&P 500 is experiencing its first meaningful pullback since the April low, which may ultimately be welcomed by buyers, but current negative catalysts are being respected [3][6] Technical Indicators - The 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 is rolling over, indicating a contraction in market breadth and making it harder for investors to capitalize on the uptrend since late September [5][6] - Sell signals have emerged on the weekly charts of demark indicators for the first time since April, suggesting a potentially prolonged consolidation period of about eight weeks [7] Seasonal Influences - The current market behavior deviates from typical seasonal patterns, as positive seasonal influences usually manifest in November, but were absent in August, September, and early October [7] Interest Rates and Gold - The 10-year yield has a key support level at 4%, with 3.67% being the next significant level to watch [8] - Gold is showing strong momentum, with attention on the 20-day moving average to stay aligned with the uptrend [9]