Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email Please leave this field empty What a strange day. Overnight futures were sharply lower, with the Nasdaq down more than 1.5% at one point and clear signs of nervousness in global markets. Yet all of that anxiety disappeared almost immediately once the cash session opened. The S&P 500 erased an overnight decline of roughly 1% and finished the day higher by about 20 basis points.Those cheap 6,900-strike call options expiring today may hav ...

Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment is fragile, with recent sell-offs in Bitcoin, gold, and NASDAQ indicating a shift from previous optimism surrounding AI investments [3][9][21] - The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has increased significantly, which may provide a boost to the market if confirmed [8][9] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing volatility, with significant sell-offs leading to concerns about market liquidity and leverage positions [5][20] - The current state of Bitcoin is described as oversold, presenting potential buying opportunities for investors [21][22] Geopolitical Factors - Increased military presence around Venezuela and actions against Russian tankers could impact oil markets, potentially leading to higher oil prices [15][17] - Geopolitical tensions are seen as a macro factor that could influence market dynamics, particularly in the oil sector [16][17] Currency and Economic Policy - Japan's recent economic stimulus of 135 billion could affect the yen carry trade, which has implications for global markets [10][12][14] - The dollar is approaching a six-month high, which may influence investor behavior and market trends [10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock markets in Europe and Asia experienced significant sell-offs, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - European stocks faced a decline, with major indices dropping by an average of 2% [1] - Asian markets also reflected this trend, with losses reported across key exchanges, particularly in Japan and Hong Kong [1] - The sell-off was attributed to rising inflation concerns and potential interest rate hikes by central banks [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic data released indicated a slowdown in growth, contributing to investor anxiety [1] - Inflation rates in several countries have reached multi-year highs, prompting fears of tighter monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest that the current market volatility may persist as investors react to changing economic conditions [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Grupo Televisa's consolidated operating segment income margin expanded by 100 basis points year on year to 38.2%, driven by a year-on-year OpEx reduction of around 7% [4] - The leverage ratio improved to 2.1 times EBITDA from 2.5 times at the end of the previous year, primarily due to free cash flow generation [6] - Televisa Univision's third quarter revenue declined by 3% year on year to $1,300,000,000, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% to $460,000,000 [16][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Internet subscriber base in Cable grew in the first nine months of the year compared to 2024, with a monthly churn rate below 2% for two consecutive quarters [4][10] - Cable's net revenue from residential operations was MXN 10,600,000,000, a decrease of only 0.7% year on year, marking the best quarter in two years [12] - Televisa Univision's consolidated advertising revenue decreased by 6% year on year, with a notable 11% decline in the U.S. [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Engagement and growth for VIX remained solid, with a high single-digit increase in MAUs driven by events like the Gold Cup semifinals [6] - In Mexico, advertising revenue increased by 3% year on year, primarily due to private and public sector ad sales [19] - The leverage and debt profile of Televisa Univision improved to 5.5 times EBITDA from 5.9 times in 2024, driven by growth [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on attracting and retaining value customers in Cable, aiming for higher-end clients rather than volume [43] - Deleveraging remains a core strategic priority for Televisa Univision, with management committed to strengthening the capital structure [8] - The integration between EASI and Sky is expected to yield further synergies and operational efficiencies [4][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing integration and operational optimization at Televisa Univision, which is expected to create greater shareholder value [20] - The company acknowledges the rational nature of the competitive landscape in Mexico, with price increases being implemented across the industry [47][48] - Management highlighted the importance of local news and programming, exploring the inclusion of such content in their streaming platform [31] Other Important Information - The company generated around ARS 4,200,000,000 in free cash flow, allowing for the prepayment of a bank loan due in 2026 [5] - CapEx deployment for 2025 is budgeted at $600,000,000, with a reasonable CapEx to sales ratio of less than 20% [4][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx outlook for 2026 and insurance claim related to Hurricane Otis - Management provided guidance of around $600,000,000 for CapEx in 2025 and confirmed that the insurance claim related to Hurricane Otis is the last portion of that claim [22][24] Question: Local programming and advertising investments - Management acknowledged the importance of local news and is exploring its inclusion in the streaming platform, while also highlighting successful media for equity deals with startups [31][32] Question: Competition dynamics in the cable market - Management noted that the market is close to full penetration and emphasized a strategy focused on higher-end clients to maintain ARPU growth [43][44] Question: Sustainability of margins for Cable and Sky - Management indicated ongoing efforts to improve margins through technology and operational efficiencies, with confidence in sustaining high margins in the industry [62][63]

Market Structure Insights - Current market structure indicates a potential for increased volatility, as observed in early Q4, aligning with previous predictions made in April [3][4] - The market's behavior is often mathematical and predictable, with the "123 rule" suggesting that a narrow spread in SPY could signal upcoming volatility [5][6] Fund Behavior and Market Dynamics - The Growth Fund of America holds a significant amount of cash due to redemptions, while BlackRock has gathered $26 billion in assets, primarily directed towards large-cap stocks [7][8] - Market makers like Citadel, Susquehanna, and Jane Street play a crucial role in pricing large caps and ETFs, and narrow spreads can lead to volatility when economic conditions change [8] Volatility Trends - Recent data indicates that the market has experienced one of the longest periods of stable sentiment since 2018, with a notable event on October 10 marking significant volatility [10][11] - The upcoming options expirations are critical, as they may reset market conditions and influence volatility, with a notional value of $1.2 trillion in zero days to expiration options [12][13]

Core Insights - The Hecht Commodity Report is recognized as one of the most comprehensive commodities reports available, focusing on market movements of over 29 different commodities [1] - The report provides various market calls including bullish, bearish, and neutral, along with directional trading recommendations and actionable ideas for traders and investors [1][2] Group 1 - The report covers market movements of 20 different commodities, offering insights and recommendations for traders [2] - The author maintains positions in commodities markets through futures, options, ETF/ETN products, and commodity equities, with positions changing on an intraday basis [3]

Market Sentiment and Volatility - A notable sentiment shift occurred, with the VIX moving above resistance around 18, which typically predicts an increase in volatility for up to three weeks [2][4] - The S&P 500 is experiencing its first meaningful pullback since the April low, which may ultimately be welcomed by buyers, but current negative catalysts are being respected [3][6] Technical Indicators - The 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 is rolling over, indicating a contraction in market breadth and making it harder for investors to capitalize on the uptrend since late September [5][6] - Sell signals have emerged on the weekly charts of demark indicators for the first time since April, suggesting a potentially prolonged consolidation period of about eight weeks [7] Seasonal Influences - The current market behavior deviates from typical seasonal patterns, as positive seasonal influences usually manifest in November, but were absent in August, September, and early October [7] Interest Rates and Gold - The 10-year yield has a key support level at 4%, with 3.67% being the next significant level to watch [8] - Gold is showing strong momentum, with attention on the 20-day moving average to stay aligned with the uptrend [9]

Katie Stockton, Fair Lead Strategies founder and managing partner and a CNBC contributor. You're just the person I could ask. Um, have you compiled statistics on people correctly calling bubbles.And is it above 0% for for people being right at least immediately. It's never happened in the history of the world, has it. >> It's like a bubble of people calling bubbles, right.And >> that's right. It is. which means it isn't which means it's not going to pop anytime soon probably right >> but it does feel like a ...

Core Insights - Investors are experiencing increased volatility in the stock market, primarily due to renewed trade-related uncertainties with China, leading to significant movements in major U.S. stock indexes [2][3][8] - The VIX, a key measure of market volatility, has risen to nearly 23, indicating heightened fear among traders, although it remains below the peak levels seen in April [4][8] Market Conditions - The current volatility is the highest in months, yet stock prices are still close to record highs, suggesting that investor confidence has not completely eroded [3][6] - The CNN Fear & Greed Index is nearing "Extreme Fear" territory, contrasting with earlier readings that indicated greed, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [6] Asset Price Movements - Gold prices are approaching record highs, indicating that investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid uncertainty, with some consumers cashing in on jewelry [7] - In the S&P 500, sectors such as technology and discretionary stocks are experiencing declines, while consumer staples are seeing gains, highlighting a shift in investor preferences [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting silence period will begin next week, with Chairman Powell set to deliver his final public remarks before the silence on October 15 [1] - Market focus includes potential restructuring of the FOMC due to the new Fed Chair nomination, the impact of a weak U.S. labor market on front-end Treasury yields, and the long-term effects of global "de-dollarization" consensus on the U.S. dollar exchange rate [1] - The forecast suggests a continued weak dollar until the end of 2026, with a potential interest rate cut exceeding expectations by 75 basis points in Q4 2025 [1] Market Summary - Major U.S. indices experienced significant sell-offs due to escalating trade tensions, particularly in response to U.S. tariff comments on China [3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.7% to 6,549.5 points, the Dow Jones by 1.9% to 45,453 points, and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.5% to 24,175.75 points, indicating a broad market decline [5] - The VIX index surged as fear and uncertainty increased, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined due to safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed easing [5] Commodity and Currency Movements - WTI crude oil saw a slight rebound from recent lows amid hopes for trade easing [4] - Gold futures surged to historical highs driven by inflows of safe-haven funds and rising rate cut expectations [6] - The dollar index remained stable due to safe-haven demand, while gold showed strength amid these conditions [9] European Market Dynamics - Despite credit rating downgrades in countries like France, European markets displayed resilience, particularly benefiting financial stocks amid regulatory and capital relief expectations [7] - Major European indices, including DAX and CAC, showed general weakness, unable to fully escape global sell-off pressures [9]