Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Grupo Televisa's consolidated operating segment income margin expanded by 100 basis points year on year to 38.2%, driven by a year-on-year OpEx reduction of around 7% [4] - The leverage ratio improved to 2.1 times EBITDA from 2.5 times at the end of the previous year, primarily due to free cash flow generation [6] - Televisa Univision's third quarter revenue declined by 3% year on year to $1,300,000,000, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% to $460,000,000 [16][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Internet subscriber base in Cable grew in the first nine months of the year compared to 2024, with a monthly churn rate below 2% for two consecutive quarters [4][10] - Cable's net revenue from residential operations was MXN 10,600,000,000, a decrease of only 0.7% year on year, marking the best quarter in two years [12] - Televisa Univision's consolidated advertising revenue decreased by 6% year on year, with a notable 11% decline in the U.S. [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Engagement and growth for VIX remained solid, with a high single-digit increase in MAUs driven by events like the Gold Cup semifinals [6] - In Mexico, advertising revenue increased by 3% year on year, primarily due to private and public sector ad sales [19] - The leverage and debt profile of Televisa Univision improved to 5.5 times EBITDA from 5.9 times in 2024, driven by growth [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on attracting and retaining value customers in Cable, aiming for higher-end clients rather than volume [43] - Deleveraging remains a core strategic priority for Televisa Univision, with management committed to strengthening the capital structure [8] - The integration between EASI and Sky is expected to yield further synergies and operational efficiencies [4][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing integration and operational optimization at Televisa Univision, which is expected to create greater shareholder value [20] - The company acknowledges the rational nature of the competitive landscape in Mexico, with price increases being implemented across the industry [47][48] - Management highlighted the importance of local news and programming, exploring the inclusion of such content in their streaming platform [31] Other Important Information - The company generated around ARS 4,200,000,000 in free cash flow, allowing for the prepayment of a bank loan due in 2026 [5] - CapEx deployment for 2025 is budgeted at $600,000,000, with a reasonable CapEx to sales ratio of less than 20% [4][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx outlook for 2026 and insurance claim related to Hurricane Otis - Management provided guidance of around $600,000,000 for CapEx in 2025 and confirmed that the insurance claim related to Hurricane Otis is the last portion of that claim [22][24] Question: Local programming and advertising investments - Management acknowledged the importance of local news and is exploring its inclusion in the streaming platform, while also highlighting successful media for equity deals with startups [31][32] Question: Competition dynamics in the cable market - Management noted that the market is close to full penetration and emphasized a strategy focused on higher-end clients to maintain ARPU growth [43][44] Question: Sustainability of margins for Cable and Sky - Management indicated ongoing efforts to improve margins through technology and operational efficiencies, with confidence in sustaining high margins in the industry [62][63]

Market Structure Insights - Current market structure indicates a potential for increased volatility, as observed in early Q4, aligning with previous predictions made in April [3][4] - The market's behavior is often mathematical and predictable, with the "123 rule" suggesting that a narrow spread in SPY could signal upcoming volatility [5][6] Fund Behavior and Market Dynamics - The Growth Fund of America holds a significant amount of cash due to redemptions, while BlackRock has gathered $26 billion in assets, primarily directed towards large-cap stocks [7][8] - Market makers like Citadel, Susquehanna, and Jane Street play a crucial role in pricing large caps and ETFs, and narrow spreads can lead to volatility when economic conditions change [8] Volatility Trends - Recent data indicates that the market has experienced one of the longest periods of stable sentiment since 2018, with a notable event on October 10 marking significant volatility [10][11] - The upcoming options expirations are critical, as they may reset market conditions and influence volatility, with a notional value of $1.2 trillion in zero days to expiration options [12][13]

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Market Sentiment and Volatility - A notable sentiment shift occurred, with the VIX moving above resistance around 18, which typically predicts an increase in volatility for up to three weeks [2][4] - The S&P 500 is experiencing its first meaningful pullback since the April low, which may ultimately be welcomed by buyers, but current negative catalysts are being respected [3][6] Technical Indicators - The 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 is rolling over, indicating a contraction in market breadth and making it harder for investors to capitalize on the uptrend since late September [5][6] - Sell signals have emerged on the weekly charts of demark indicators for the first time since April, suggesting a potentially prolonged consolidation period of about eight weeks [7] Seasonal Influences - The current market behavior deviates from typical seasonal patterns, as positive seasonal influences usually manifest in November, but were absent in August, September, and early October [7] Interest Rates and Gold - The 10-year yield has a key support level at 4%, with 3.67% being the next significant level to watch [8] - Gold is showing strong momentum, with attention on the 20-day moving average to stay aligned with the uptrend [9]

Katie Stockton, Fair Lead Strategies founder and managing partner and a CNBC contributor. You're just the person I could ask. Um, have you compiled statistics on people correctly calling bubbles.And is it above 0% for for people being right at least immediately. It's never happened in the history of the world, has it. >> It's like a bubble of people calling bubbles, right.And >> that's right. It is. which means it isn't which means it's not going to pop anytime soon probably right >> but it does feel like a ...

Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images Stocks are back to making dramatic moves after a long upward run. Key Takeaways The major U.S. stock indexes are back to making dramatic moves, with investors dealing with another round of trade-related uncertainty. One widely used volatility measure, the VIX, has jumped recently to its highest levels in months. But it's still well off April highs. Investors are getting a taste of volatility. We're not back where we were in April—but the increase is notabl ...

AvaTrade爱华官网行情：美联储10月议息会议静默期将于下周启动，主席鲍威尔将在北京时间周三（10 月15日）凌晨发表静默期前最后一次公开讲话。当前市场关注点包括：①新任美联储主席提名可能引发 的FOMC重组预期；②美国劳动力市场疲软对前端国债收益率的压制效应；③全球"去美元化"共识对美 元汇率的长期影响。 预测，美元弱势或延续至2026年末，但2025Q4降息幅度可能超预期75个基点 1） 前一日总结 – 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 美国主要指数 由于贸易紧张局势再度加剧，市场大幅抛售，投资者对美国对华关税的言论做出了反应。 波动性和收益率 商品 黄金期货： 避险资金流入和降息预期飙升至历史新高。 欧洲 尽管信用评级被下调（例如法国），但欧洲市场表现出一定的韧性，尽管由于对监管和资本减免的预 期，金融股受益更多。 顶级股票推动者 2. 今天的动向 – 2025 年 10 月 13 日星期一 市场亮点 WTI原油：在贸易宽松的希望下从近期低点小幅反弹。 标准普尔500指数： ▼- 2.7%（大幅下跌） 至6,549.5点 道琼斯指数：▼ -1.9% 至 45,453 点 纳斯达克 100 指数 ...

Core Insights - The discussion focuses on using options in the market to limit downside risk, particularly through strategies involving the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) [1][2][10] Options Strategy - Selling one options contract can hedge approximately $67,000, making it a viable strategy for portfolios around $250,000 [2] - A risk reversal strategy is proposed, involving selling a call option 5% above the current market and buying a put option 5% below, effectively financing downside protection [3][4][6] Market Conditions - The current market environment is described as noisy, with warnings of potential downturns, emphasizing the importance of downside protection [5][10] - The VIX index, currently at 16, indicates low volatility and presents an inexpensive opportunity for buying downside protection [12][14] Investor Sentiment - There is a notable concern regarding overexposure to AI stocks, with suggestions to create a diversified basket or use ETFs like QQQ to mitigate risk [7][8] - The market's upward momentum is attributed to a lack of data and ongoing interest rate policies, leading to a chase for higher returns as the year ends [15][16]

Group 1: VIX Index and Market Volatility - The current market environment is characterized by a focus on volatility, with the VIX index being a key indicator for hedging long portfolios or speculating on rising volatility [2][4] - There is a notable seasonality effect in October, with potential risks such as government shutdowns contributing to expectations of increased volatility [3][4] - A bullish position in the VIX is suggested, with a specific trade involving buying a 20 call and selling a 25 call, requiring the VIX to remain above 25 for profitability [5][11] Group 2: Toll Brothers and Homebuilder Sector - The homebuilder sector, including Toll Brothers, has been downgraded to neutral by Evercore ISI due to a lack of improved activity and affordability in the market [12][14] - Toll Brothers has seen an 11% decline in the month, with ongoing margin compression as builders buy down mortgage rates to stimulate demand [13][15] - A bearish outlook is presented for Toll Brothers, with a proposed trade involving buying a 125 put and selling a 115 put, indicating expectations of a significant market pullback [18][19] Group 3: Treasury Bond Market - The bond market is facing bearish sentiment, with concerns over fiscal irresponsibility and the potential return of bond vigilantes amid ongoing government shutdowns [26][28] - A trade in the 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is proposed, involving buying an 88 put and selling an 83 put, reflecting expectations of lower bond prices and higher rates [29][30] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in TLT, with key support levels identified around 88 and 87, suggesting potential for further declines [31][33]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit complex and divergent trends, with the US market continuing to reach new highs driven by strong performance in technology and small-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices show notable gains, while the Dow Jones index experiences a slight increase, supported by robust corporate earnings and positive developments in the AI sector [1][3] - In contrast, European markets show weakness, with the UK FTSE 100 index slightly up, while the German DAX and French CAC 40 indices both decline, reflecting concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty in the region [1][3] Commodity Performance - Gold prices have significantly risen, indicating strong demand, while WTI crude oil prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply [1][4] - The reopening of a major pipeline in Iraq has heightened supply concerns, contributing to a decline in oil prices [4] Key Indices and Movements - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.44% to 6,693.75, while the Dow Jones rose by 0.14% to 46,381.54 [4] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a rise of 0.55% to 22,788.98, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.60% to 2,463.34 [4] - European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 experienced declines of 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment in the region [4] Investor Sentiment - Overall, investors maintain a defensive stance with limited risk appetite, as evidenced by the mixed performance across global markets [3] - The focus for upcoming trading days will be on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and key inflation data [3]