周四，随着股市在强劲就业数据推动下接近历史高点，衡量华尔街对未来一个月波动率预期的指标跌至2月14 日以来最低水平。 芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（Cboe Volatility Index，简称VIX指数）从周三收盘价下跌近0.5点，盘中低点达 14.95点，随后反弹至约15点。 VIX指数跌至2月中旬以来的最低盘中水平 这一下跌表明，部分押注标普500指数下跌的投资者正在止损。具体而言，被称为"波动率买家"的交易员—— 他们持有从股市下跌或波动率上升中获利的头寸——开始认输。 "能看到一些波动率买家有点束手无策了，"对冲基金安布鲁斯集团（The Ambrus Group）联席首席投资官克里 斯·西迪亚尔（Kris Sidial）表示。 与此同时，一种回顾性的市场波动衡量指标——已实现波动率的跌幅超过了VIX指数。例如，芝加哥期权交易 所全球市场（Cboe Global Markets）的数据显示，标普500指数一个月已实现波动率仅为6.9%。 "VIX指数在市场创下历史新高时下跌并不令人意外，"芝加哥期权交易所衍生品市场情报主管曼迪·徐（Mandy Xu）表示，"或许更令人惊讶的是，考虑到已实现波动率如此温 ...

尽管市场对美股泡沫担忧加剧，但摩根大通交易部门预计美股涨势将延续。 周四美股开盘前，摩根大通交易部门主管Andrew Tyler指出，近期贸易协议进展、积极经济数据和并购活动重燃是推动股市的关键因素。从技术 角度看，动量交易的反转叠加Meme股重现疫情期间的狂热，使交易员难以维持空头头寸，这也为涨势提供支撑。 同时市场投机性资金火爆，"木头姐"的方舟创新科技ETF在过去三个月涨幅近100%，该ETF跟踪的大多是利润差劲的科技股。 美国多项经济指标显示市场基本面依然稳固。华尔街见闻撰文，美国失业救济申请连续第六周下降，凸显美国劳动力市场韧性。谷歌财报显示对 AI需求依然强劲，推动周四科技股走高。 策略师建议多元化配置 Tyler建议买入大型科技股、周期性股票和高贝塔标的，同时通过标普500看跌期权和VIX相关产品进行对冲。 对冲基金Citadel的策略主管Scott Rubner预期股市将涨至9月，建议交易员在秋季转向对冲前把握上涨机会。 巴克莱衍生品主管Stefano Pascale整个夏季都在提示市场过度狂热风险。但他认为这种热情可能持续时间超出预期，建议客户使用期权应对市场波 动。 尽管投资者"非理性繁荣 ...

智通财经APP获悉，包括高盛和城堡证券在内的多家金融机构的交易部门正告知客户购买廉价的对冲工 具，以防范美国股市可能出现的损失。与此同时，美股创下的涨幅纪录正面临一系列风险的考验。 近期，美股基准股指飙升，因为财报季表现强劲并且美日达成了贸易协议。标普500 指数较自 4 月 8 日 低点已上涨了 28%，"恐慌指数"创下2月以来新低。而这种背景使得防范市场下跌的成本变得很低。标 普500 指数ETF在未来一个月内下跌 10%的对冲成本与上涨 10%的对冲成本相比，目前处于自 1 月以来 的最低水平。 高盛交易部门在周一给客户的一份报告中写道："如果你感到焦虑，那么市场显然会让套期保值操作变 得非常容易操作。" 据Rubner称，随着美国股市持续上涨，各类机构投资者(包括系统性基金)的长期持仓量已接近高位。他 补充道，很快他们就会"放缓买入步伐"。 但与此同时，市场正面临着一系列可能对其造成不利影响的事件。美联储将于 7 月 30 日公布其下一次 利率决议，而届时距离美国总统特朗普的关税截止日期仅有两天。美国尚未与墨西哥和加拿大等主要合 作伙伴达成贸易协议。谈判陷入僵局并重新引发贸易紧张局势，可能会削弱投资者 ...

Grupo Televisa (TV) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 23, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlfonso de Angoitia Noriega - Co-CEOFrancisco Valim - CEO of IZZI Grupo Televisa´s Cable CompanyMilenna Okamura - Equity Research AssociateConference Call ParticipantsEmilio Fuentes - Senior Analyst - Equity ResearchLivea M - Equity Research AnalystMatthew Harrigan - Equity Research AnalystOperatorMorning. Welcome to Coripa Televisa's second quarter twenty twenty five conference call. Before we begin, I would like to dra ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Grupo Televisa's consolidated operating segment income margin expanded by around 80 basis points to 38.1% in the first half of the year, driven by a year-on-year OpEx reduction of around 7% [3] - The leverage ratio improved to 2.2x EBITDA at the end of the second quarter from 2.4x at the end of the first quarter, primarily due to free cash flow generation [4] - Televisa Univision's second quarter revenue declined by 4% year on year, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cable operations ended June with a network of almost 20 million homes, with a monthly churn rate falling below the historical average of 2% [7] - Broadband growth improved with over 6,000 net adds during the second quarter, compared to disconnections of around 6,000 in the first quarter [8] - Sky's second quarter revenue declined by 16.3% year on year, primarily due to a lower subscriber base, resulting in a loss of 347,000 revenue-generating units [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Televisa Univision's advertising revenue in the U.S. decreased by 2%, while in Mexico, it declined by 13% year on year, driven by the depreciation of the Mexican peso [14] - Subscription and licensing revenue in the U.S. increased by 9%, while in Mexico, it fell by 23% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on attracting and retaining value customers in cable, which has stabilized the Internet subscriber base [3] - A disciplined CapEx deployment approach is being maintained to focus on free cash flow generation, with a reduction in the CapEx budget from $665 million to $600 million [4][26] - Deleveraging remains a core strategic priority for Televisa Univision, with management committed to strengthening the capital structure [6] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that the distribution business remains strong, with ongoing analysis of alternatives to generate value [18] - The integration of Sky is nearing completion, with no expected burden from disconnections due to a variable cost structure [20][22] - The company is enhancing digital sales and monetization strategies, particularly in the U.S. market [38][40] Other Important Information - The company generated around ARS 3.6 billion in free cash flow, allowing for the prepayment of a bank loan due in 2026 [4] - The efficiency plan at Televisa Univision is proving successful, with total operating expenses declining by around 13% year on year [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does Televisa Univision view the separation between content streaming and cable TV in the U.S.? - Management sees value in keeping distribution and content bundled for now, as it remains a significant revenue business [18] Question: What are the expectations for CapEx and broadband adds in the second half of the year? - CapEx guidance has been updated to $600 million, and churn is expected to remain low due to a focus on high-end subscribers [26][27] Question: How is the competition evolving in the market? - The competition in Mexico is rational, with no significant price swings, which supports the company's strategy [32]

Our last article on volatility covered the -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (BATS: SVIX ). We were adamant at the time that volatility was going to normalize, and that the VIX curve would move back to contango. TheWith an investment banking cash and derivatives trading background, Binary Tree Analytics ('BTA') aims to provide transparency and analytics in respect to capital markets instruments and trades. BTA focuses on CEFs, ETFs and Special Situations, and aims to deliver high annualized returns with a low volat ...

特朗普周三将对鲍威尔的施压升级，随后又迅速退缩，这使得美联储独立性问题成为焦点。分析师警 告，若特朗普解雇鲍威尔，将扰乱金融市场并引发严重的法律对峙。 "所有人都看到的这些事，无疑会损害美联储这一机构，但说实话，美联储的独立性就是个神话，"本哈 穆称。 他提到了1965年12月约翰逊与马丁的著名冲突：当时约翰逊召集马丁等美联储官员到他的得州牧场，抱 怨加息会阻碍经济发展。但当时马丁在约翰逊的恳请下仍拒绝让步。 摩根大通、美国银行和高盛的高管都强调了美联储独立性的重要性。 当然，美国利率调整需要联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）多数成员支持，因此任何新任主席都必须说服 同事支持降息。利率预期显示，政策制定者对今年剩余时间的降息前景存在分歧，主要源于对特朗普关 税如何影响通胀的看法不同。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 摩根大通股票衍生品销售团队的伊兰·本哈穆（Ilan Benhamou）在给客户的报告中称，美联储不受政治 压力影响的说法是"神话"，且降息押注将推动美股继续飙升。 "当前我们亲眼所见的一切，几十年来一直在幕后上演，"他写道，并将当前局势与1965年时任总统林登 ·约翰逊（Ly ...

Core Viewpoint - The perception that the Federal Reserve operates independently of political pressure is described as a "false proposition," suggesting that market expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a continued rise in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - As the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell approaches its end, investors are expected to focus on the policies of the next Fed chair [1] - Market volatility is anticipated to increase due to uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain long positions in the S&P 500 index and the VIX index, betting on increased allocations to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence [1]

一、不只是加密货币，还有石油 几天之前，我们回顾了《经济学人》的华丽封面，它们成功在加密货币世界里扮演了反向指标的角色。但实际上，不仅是加密货币，《经济学人》在其他 领域的表现也非常稳健。比如石油，1999 年至 2016 年，它的五篇封面文章精准踩中了每一次价格的顶峰和低谷。 当然是反向的踩中。 1999年3月《石油泛滥》。把当时 6600 万桶的全球日产量描绘成洪水猛兽，油价似乎只能一路下滑。然而很快，随着亚洲金融危机的阴霾散去，油价一路 狂飙。 2000 年9月《石油即将反击？》。文中警告：即便 OPEC 开闸增产，原油也可能冲破每桶 40 美元的心理关口。但是，2001 年全球经济放缓，油价应声回 落。 道理也很简单：等编辑部终于觉得"这股风够劲儿"值得上封面，说明它早已在大众视野里暴露了足够久。情绪已经极致，故事已经透支，再没有散户充当 价格的燃料，剩下的往往只有均值回归这一个结局。想想看，资产若不经历暴涨暴跌，哪有足够的话题度来跻身封面？ 等它真正上封面的时候，故事已经完完全全被price in。 三、用数据说话 2003 年10月《石油时代的终结》。把技术进步、高效能汽车、可再生能源捧成石油的掘 ...

高压锅里的黄金：一场多空博弈的惊险对峙 黄金市场正经历着一场罕见的平静风暴。最近十天，金价在狭窄区间内剧烈震荡，涨跌毫无规律可循，多空双方陷入胶着，技术指标如同天书般难以解读。 5日、10日、甚至60日均线纠缠在一起，形成令人眼花缭乱的"麻花团"。突破60日均线后却迅速回落，站上60日均线后又立即阴跌，追涨杀跌者损失惨重。 过去半个月，黄金波动微乎其微，日涨跌幅往往不足0.8%，布林带收窄至3282-3413美元区间，这令人回想起2019年同样低波动的景象。 如何在震荡期中生存？避免在3320-3340美元的狭窄区间内频繁交易，因为低波动率导致价差微薄，利润空间不足。考虑对冲策略，例如搭配美元债券以平 抑波动，黄金VIX期权合约交易量的显著增加，暗示着部分机构投资者正在积极布局。 解读市场信号远比预测价格重要得多。日线级别出现2%以上的大阳线时，需谨慎观察成交量是否同步放大，真正的有效突破需要成交量出现倍增。 机构投资者对后市预期分歧巨大。东证期货看好下半年金价冲击3600美元，他们押注地缘政治风险和央行购金力度的爆发；而花旗银行则悲观预测，2026年 金价可能跌至2500-2700美元，认为市场已提前消化降 ...