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China Markets Diverge From US Tech on AI and Chip Breakthrough Hopes
FX Empireยท 2025-12-18 03:45
Group 1: EUV Lithography and Market Impact - The existence and capabilities of a new prototype in EUV lithography remain unverified, but market reactions indicate investor seriousness [1] - ASML currently produces EUV machines, and export restrictions have prevented China from acquiring them, leading to Chinese manufacturers developing their own [2] - China's potential entry into the EUV lithography market could disrupt existing chip manufacturers and EUV machine suppliers, allowing China to sell machines and chips at significantly lower prices [2] Group 2: Economic Conditions in China - China's economic headwinds challenge its 5% GDP growth target for 2025, with a notable decline in domestic demand observed in November [5] - The housing crisis continues to impact consumer sentiment, with house prices falling 2.4% year-on-year in November, following a 2.2% drop in October [7] - Lawmakers have pledged fiscal and monetary support to stabilize the labor market and boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need for effective measures to achieve GDP growth targets [6][8] Group 3: Market Performance and Outlook - The Hang Seng Index has decreased by 5.44% in Q4 but remains up 26.54% year-to-date, while the CSI 300 has gained 15.64% year-to-date despite a modest decline in the current quarter [10] - The Nasdaq Composite Index has seen a slight increase of 0.15% in Q4, remaining close to its all-time high [11] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish near-term outlook for the CSI 300, with critical support levels identified at 4,500 and 4,365 [12][13]