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Will PAAS Unlock More Value Through Its MAG Silver Acquisition?
ZACKS· 2025-06-12 14:56
Core Insights - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is acquiring MAG Silver Corp. (MAG) in a $2.1 billion deal to enhance reserves and cash flows, solidifying its position in the silver mining industry [1][10] - The acquisition is expected to significantly boost PAAS' production and reduce costs, particularly through the Juanicipio project [3][5] Acquisition Details - MAG Silver's 44% stake in the Juanicipio project is a key asset, known as the world's largest-scale, highest-grade, and lowest-cost primary silver mine [3] - The deal has received approval from the boards of both companies and is pending regulatory approvals, including antitrust clearance from Mexican authorities [2] Production and Financial Impact - Juanicipio is forecasted to produce 14.7-16.7 million ounces of silver in 2025, with PAAS' share translating to approximately 6.5–7.3 million ounces [4] - This addition will complement PAAS' guided 2025 production of 20–21 million ounces, excluding Juanicipio [4] - The acquisition is expected to add 58 million ounces to PAAS' proven and probable silver reserves, which were 468 million ounces as of June 30, 2024 [6] - Juanicipio is projected to contribute $98 million in free cash flow to PAAS this year, with an expected growth of 23% over the next three years [6][10] Market Position and Performance - The combined market capitalization of PAAS and MAG Silver will be around $12.6 billion, surpassing competitors like First Majestic and Coeur Mining [8] - Year-to-date, PAAS shares have gained 41.8%, outperforming the industry's growth of 34.8% [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAAS' earnings for 2025 is $1.47 per share, indicating a year-over-year surge of 86% [13] - The estimate for 2026 is $1.89, reflecting an increase of 28.7% [13]