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GitLab Shares Plunge. Why It May Be Time to Load Up on the Stock Ahead of the New Year.
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-07 13:35
Core Viewpoint - GitLab is positioned for a potential rebound in 2026 despite a significant drop in share price, attributed to investor concerns over its SMB segment and perceived threats from AI [1][14]. Financial Performance - GitLab reported a 25% year-over-year revenue increase for fiscal Q3 2026, reaching $244.4 million, surpassing its forecast [6]. - Subscription revenue rose by 27% to $223.3 million, while license revenue increased by 1% to $21.1 million [7]. - The company achieved an adjusted operating income of $43.7 million, a 69% increase, with operating margins improving to 17.9% from 13.2% [10]. - Adjusted free cash flow was $27.2 million, up from $9.7 million a year ago, with over $1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments and no debt [11]. Customer Base and Market Dynamics - GitLab's dollar-based net retention rate is 119%, indicating existing customers are increasing their spending [8]. - The number of customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue grew by 23% to 1,405, with the SMB segment contributing only 8% of total ARR [9]. Future Outlook - GitLab raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to between $946 million and $947 million, and adjusted EPS guidance to $0.95 to $0.96 [11]. - For fiscal Q4, revenue is projected to be between $251 million and $252 million, reflecting approximately 19% growth [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is transitioning to a comprehensive end-to-end software development lifecycle platform, with the Duo Agent platform set to enhance developer productivity through AI [5][4]. - GitLab is shifting to a hybrid seat plus usage-based business model, which is expected to drive long-term growth [16]. Valuation - GitLab's stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales multiple of 5.5 times fiscal year 2027 estimates, and an enterprise value-to-sales ratio of about 4.5 times, indicating it is undervalued given its strong revenue growth and high gross margins [17].