Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - Soybeans are experiencing losses of 5 to 6 cents, with the national average cash bean price at $9.93 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents [1] - Soybean export shipments for the week ending January 29 totaled 1.31 MMT (48.15 mbu), which is 1.9% lower than the previous week but 14.9% higher than the same week last year [1] - Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are at 21.99 MMT (808 mbu) since September 1, representing a 35.7% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: International Trade Developments - President Trump announced a successful call with India's President Modi, resulting in a reduction of tariffs from 25% to 18% and India agreeing to purchase over $500 billion of U.S. products, including agricultural goods [2] - India has historically been a top buyer of U.S. bean oil and was the leading buyer in 2025 [2] Group 3: Speculative Trading and Crop Estimates - CFTC data indicates that speculative funds increased their net long positions in soybean futures and options by 7,261 contracts, bringing the total to a net long of 17,321 contracts as of January 27 [3] - Brazil's soybean crop is currently estimated to be 10% harvested, with StoneX projecting the crop at 181.6 MMT, an increase of 4 MMT from previous estimates [4] - The Celeres forecast for Brazil's soybean crop has also been raised by 4.1 MMT to 181.3 MMT [4]

Core Insights - Soybean futures experienced a decline of 8 to 11 cents in the front months, with a closing drop of 2 to 4 cents on Tuesday as traders reacted to Chinese purchases [1][2] - The USDA reported a total of 792,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, with additional reports indicating that China purchased at least 14 cargoes, potentially reaching 20 cargoes [2] - The USDA's Crop Progress report indicated that 95% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, slightly behind the average pace of 96% [3] Market Performance - Soybean futures closed lower, with January 26 closing at $11.53 1/2 (down 3 3/4 cents), March 26 at $11.60 1/4 (down 3 cents), and May 26 at $11.67 1/4 (down 2 3/4 cents) [3] - The national average Cash Bean price decreased by 4 cents to $10.80 3/4 [1] Crop Estimates - Brazil's soybean crop is estimated at 177.7 MMT, reflecting a reduction of 0.8 MMT from previous estimates [3]