Soybeans are trading with 7 to 9 cent gains on Tuesday AM trade. Futures saw weaker trade on Monday with contracts closing 4 to 5 cents lower in the nearbys. Open interest was down just 225 contracts on Monday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 1 3/4 cents lower at $9.96 3/4. Soymeal futures were 20 to 90 cents higher, with Soy Oil futures were down 30 to 37 points at the close. Bean oil is up 138 points this morning. USDA’s FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 1.31 MMT (48.15 mbu) d ...

Core Insights - Soybean futures are experiencing gains of 5 to 8 cents on Wednesday, following a previous decline of 9 to 10.25 cents on Tuesday [1] - The USDA reported a private export sale of 168,000 MT of soybeans to China and 152,404 MT to Mexico [2] - NOPA data is expected to show a total of 224.8 million bushels of soybeans crushed in December [3] - Brazilian soybean exports for January are estimated at 3.73 MMT, an increase of 1.33 MMT from prior estimates [3] - Chinese soybean imports in December reached 8.04 MMT, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-over-year [3] Market Performance - January soybean futures closed at $10.23.25, down 9.75 cents, but are currently up 4 cents [3] - Nearby cash prices for soybeans are at $9.66.25, down 10.25 cents [3] - March soybean futures closed at $10.38.75, down 10.25 cents, currently up 8 cents [3] - May soybean futures closed at $10.52, down 9.75 cents, currently up 7.5 cents [3] Open Interest and Deliveries - Open interest for soybeans increased by 8,255 contracts on Tuesday [1] - There were 47 deliveries issued against soybeans overnight, including 7 for January bean oil [1]

Market Overview - Soybeans are currently trading 3 to 5 ½ cents higher, recovering from a previous decline of 9 to 10 cents in the front months [1] - The national average Cash Bean price decreased by 8 3/4 cents to $10.45, while soymeal futures fell by 20 cents to $1.70 [1] - Soy Oil futures experienced a decline of 89 to 101 points [1] Export and Purchase Commitments - Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is on track to fulfill its soybean purchase commitments, with known purchases reported at just over 2.25 million metric tons (MMT) out of a total commitment of 12 MMT, expected to be completed by the end of February [2] - The USDA is expected to report soybean bookings between 0.6-2 MMT for the week of October 30, with initial Chinese purchases of 100,000 MT anticipated [3] Futures Market Activity - January 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15 3/4, down 9 cents, while March 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents [4] - May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34 3/4, down 10 cents, with current trading showing slight increases of 5 1/2 cents for January and 5 cents for March [4]

Core Insights - The recent surge in U.S. soybean sales to China marks the largest in over two years, potentially signaling the start of increased purchases by Beijing after a period of avoidance due to trade tensions [1][4] - U.S. soybean prices have risen significantly, with a nearly 12% increase since mid-October, driven by the confirmed sales and expectations of further purchases [5][7] Sales Dynamics - Farmers in the U.S. have responded to the price increase by selling their crops, while some Chinese traders have also capitalized on the situation after previously booking long positions [2] - The confirmed sales of approximately 1.6 million metric tons within three days have led to U.S. prices becoming less competitive compared to Brazilian soybeans, affecting other importers like Turkey and Vietnam [3] China's Purchasing Strategy - China is currently managing its national reserves and may need to deplete some to accommodate U.S. shipments, as it has recently made significant purchases from South America [4] - Although U.S. officials have indicated that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of the year, the actual timing and volume remain uncertain, with skepticism expressed by industry analysts [5][6] Market Reactions - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures have reached their highest levels since June 2024, reflecting market optimism regarding the sales and potential future agreements [7]

Group 1 - The soybean market experienced gains of 12 to 14 cents, with the national average Cash Bean price rising to $9.58 ¼, supported by product values and positive trade discussions [1] - Soymeal futures increased by $4 to $4.80, while Soy Oil rose by 18 to 34 points, indicating strong product support for soybeans [1] - President Trump expressed confidence in reaching a soybean deal with China, aiming for purchases at levels seen prior to trade tensions [1] Group 2 - USDA reported soybean export shipments at 1.474 million metric tons (54.17 million bushels) for the week ending October 16, which is 42.9% lower than the same week last year but 44.9% higher than the previous week [2] - Mexico was the leading destination for soybean exports, receiving 221,269 metric tons, followed by Pakistan with 167,380 metric tons and Bangladesh with 166,271 metric tons [2] - Cumulative exports for the marketing year 2025/26 reached 5.537 million metric tons (203.48 million bushels) since September 1, marking a 30.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3 - Brazil's soybean planting was reported at 24% complete, ahead of the 18% pace from the same week last year [3] - November 25 Soybeans closed at $10.31 ¾, up 12 1/4 cents, while January 26 and March 26 Soybeans also saw increases of 13 1/4 cents [3]

Market Overview - Soybean prices are down 1 to 2 ½ cents in Wednesday AM trade, following a steady close on Tuesday with contracts ending 1 ¼ cents higher from early lows [1] - The national average Cash Bean price decreased by 1 ¼ cents to $9.32 ½ [1] Export Data - Export Inspections data reported 994,008 MT (36.52 million bushels) of soybeans shipped for the week ending October 9, marking a 26.9% increase from the previous week but a 49.9% decrease from the same week last year [3] - Mexico was the leading destination for soybean exports at 195,947 MT, followed by Spain at 182,090 MT and Bangladesh at 117,598 MT [3] - Year-to-date shipments total 4.04 MMT (148.45 million bushels), reflecting a 26% year-over-year decline [3] Production and Crush Data - NOPA crush data is anticipated to show a September total of 186.34 million bushels [4] - Brazil's soybean production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 177.64 MMT, slightly down from 177.67 MMT reported last month [4] - Brazil's October soybean exports are estimated at 7.31 MMT, a 0.19 MMT increase from the previous week [4] Price Movements - November 25 Soybeans are priced at $10.06 ½, down 1 ¼ cents, while January 26 Soybeans are at $10.24 ¼, down 1 cent [5] - March 26 Soybeans are priced at $10.39 ½, down ½ cent [5] Political Context - President Trump indicated he is considering terminating business with China related to cooking oil and other trade elements as a response to China's lack of soybean purchases from the US [2]