Joining us now is Arjun Merty, partner at Veritin. Arjun, a lot of this seems to be driven by the macro and uh certainly in this administration, the headlines can change quickly. How much can investors bank on this.>> John, we've been here before. We've had a bunch of bouts of geopolitical turmoil, both bullish and bearish. Bullish, the sanctions on Russia announced over the weekend.We saw Israel bomb Iran. And previously we've had bearish headlines whether it was liberation day tariffs or spiking uh China ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market anticipates OPEC to increase supply, leading to a price slump; the next phase involves bringing approximately 170万桶/天 (1.7 million barrels per day) of oil back into the market [2][3] - Aggressive supply hikes could reveal the true extent of spare capacity, potentially re-pricing the market higher if actual barrels are less than the perceived 400万桶/天 (4 million barrels per day) [4] - Demand appears healthy for the current year but may weaken relative to supply in 2026, signaling a potential concern for OPEC [5] - US crude inventories are low, and the forward price curve remains tight, suggesting reasons for near-term optimism [6] OPEC Strategy and Challenges - OPEC needs to carefully fine-tune supply to avoid oversupplying the market in the coming year [7] - OPEC has been more optimistic about demand than the IEA (International Energy Agency) [4] - The current oil price around $62.5 per barrel is sustained by underlying demand, preventing a drop to levels like $45 per barrel despite increased supply [4] Geopolitical Factors - The Russian oil price cap has not significantly impacted their exports, with Russia still producing 990万桶/天 (9.9 million barrels per day) [7] - Ukrainian military actions against Russian oil refineries, particularly using new cruise missiles, pose a potential threat to Russian oil supply and revenues [9][10] - Continued purchases of Russian oil by countries like India and China persist, despite measures like tariffs [8]

OPEC Strategy & Market Dynamics - OPEC advanced the pace of output by 548,000 barrels a day in August [2] - OPEC ministers believe the market can absorb the increased barrels, indicating stronger demand than many market participants anticipate [8] - OPEC suggests it can "course correct" if a material oversupply situation arises, indicating flexibility in its production policy [14] - OPEC's message is that they will stand ready to fill any gaps in supply, but they need to see a supply disruption before putting barrels on the market [6][7] Geopolitical Tensions & Security Concerns - The Iranian oil minister attended the OPEC seminar via video conference due to security concerns, criticizing the United States and Israel for threatening global energy security [3][4] - Venezuela also denounced the United States and Israel, criticizing the United States for its coercive sanctions measures [5] - Geopolitical tensions are high, leading to a heavy security presence at the OPEC seminar in Vienna [5][6] US Production & Tariffs Impact - Baker Hughes rig counts are falling in the United States, raising the possibility that OPEC believes US production will drop off more than expected [11] - The market seems to be either ignoring or disbelieving the potential impact of tariffs, despite a previous 20% collapse in oil prices following a tariff announcement in April [9] Industry Collaboration & Future Outlook - The OPEC seminar included representation from a wide variety of people in the energy industry, including OPEC ministers, non-OPEC officials, CEOs, and think tank officials [16] - The key question is what will happen in Q4, with analysts divided on whether there will be a massive oversupply [13][14]