Industry Dynamics - Alphamin Resources has suspended operations at its Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with all mining personnel being evacuated except for a few essential staff for maintenance and safety [1] - The Bisie mine is the third largest tin mine globally, with a projected tin concentrate output of 17,300 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin supply [1][2] Comments - The resumption of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar, will take time, and supply disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are intensifying the supply tightness [2] - The Wa State tin mines are expected to take about a month to resume production, with output anticipated in the second half of the year [2] - The suspension of operations at the Bisie mine may lead to a short-term production recovery challenge, further exacerbating the supply tightness in the tin market [2] - As of March 13, the processing fee for tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to 12,700 yuan per ton, which is at the 23rd percentile of the past five years [2] Demand Outlook - The AI wave and policies promoting growth, such as the replacement of old products, are expected to improve demand for tin [3] - In 2024, the global tin consumption structure is projected to have 7% for photovoltaic solder strips and 50% for other tin solder materials [3] - The rise of DeepSeek is accelerating the AI trend, making tin-based solder materials the preferred choice for connecting chips and circuit boards due to their excellent soldering performance [3] - The market reform of on-grid electricity prices for new energy is expected to drive a rush in the domestic photovoltaic industry, boosting demand for photovoltaic solder strips [3] - Policies promoting the replacement of old products are likely to increase demand for tin solder materials in home appliances and automotive sectors [3] - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.5 billion in January, a year-on-year increase of 18% [3] Supply and Inventory - Supply disruptions may lead to increased safety stock requirements in the downstream industry, intensifying short-term supply-demand conflicts [3] - As of March 13, LME and SHFE tin inventories were 3,500 tons and 7,082 tons respectively, down 57% and 60% from their 2024 peaks, both at the 38th percentile of the past five years [3] - Domestic social tin ingot inventory was 8,399 tons as of March 7, also down 57% from its 2024 peak, at the 37th percentile of the past four years [3] Long-term Outlook - The tin supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight in the medium to long term, with a widening short-term supply-demand gap likely to support rising tin prices [4] - The projected supply-demand gaps for the tin industry from 2025 to 2027 are -14,000 tons, -3,000 tons, and -8,000 tons, representing -4%, -1%, and -2% of demand respectively [4]