Unlike the traditional P/E ratio, which takes into account trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) and can be tripped up by U.S. recessions, the Shiller P/E is based on average inflation-adjusted EPS over the previous 10 years. Examining a decade's worth of EPS history ensures this valuation tool doesn't lose its usefulness during economic downturns.Arguably, no historical trend speaks louder than the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/ ...

Market Overview - The market is expected to close the year at new highs, supported by historical patterns identified by Edgar Laurence Smith in the 1930s, indicating that years ending in five have historically provided the best returns [2] - The histogram of expected returns shows a bullish bias for the remainder of 2025, particularly in September and October [3] Seasonal Trends - September has historically been the weakest month, but the influence of years ending in five tends to mitigate bearish trends in autumn, projecting higher prices for the DJIA in the upcoming months [3] Magnificent Seven Analysis - Relative strength and seasonal cycles are analyzed for the Magnificent Seven stocks, with NVIDIA ranked highest at 109.5, followed by Meta at 104.6 and Alphabet at 103.4, while Tesla and Apple lag behind [4][6] - Microsoft shows a relative uptrend beginning in February, with a peak expected in September, but may underperform compared to other Magnificent Seven stocks towards year-end [8] Stock-Specific Insights - Amazon is expected to perform strongly in the second half of the year, with September and November being particularly bullish based on historical data [9] - Tesla's relative strength peaked in May, and it is unlikely to improve in the coming quarter, with only November showing potential strength [10] - Apple has been declining in relative strength throughout 2025, with September historically being weak, suggesting an underweight or sell recommendation for the stock [11]