Streaming king NFLX is trading at 2025 lows, right around a large buildup of put open interest at the 80 strike. Max pain rolls higher to 90 through April expiration and has been supporting price action recently. The stock’s front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.26 indicates we could be seeing the beginning of a rebound. And with a Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 36% that sits in the 8th percentile of its annual range, premium is affordably priced in a post-earnings vo ...

Nvidia's stock was on pace to break a five-day losing streak on Friday. ...

Core Insights - Elevance Health Inc (NYSE:ELV) experienced its largest single-day percentage gain since May 2024, reporting profits of $547 million, although this was not sufficient to recover from its worst day since March 2020 due to proposed Medicare Advantage payment rate increases of only 0.09% for 2027 [1] - The stock is currently near a trendline with historically bullish implications, which may assist in reducing its 14.2% year-over-year deficit [1] Technical Analysis - According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst, ELV is within 0.75 of its 100-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), having remained above this level 80% of the time over the last two weeks and 80% of the past 42 trading sessions. This pattern has historically led to an average gain of 5.7% one month later [3] - A similar upward movement from the current position could push ELV back above $363 [3] Market Sentiment - The health insurance stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio at major exchanges is higher than 99% of annual readings, indicating that an unwinding of pessimism could provide positive momentum for the shares [4] - Options for ELV are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33% ranking in the 27th percentile of annual readings, suggesting that the stock has exceeded option traders' volatility expectations over the past year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The long-awaited bottom in United Parcel Service (UPS) stock has been reached, and a substantial rebound is underway, supported by improved operational quality and a positive growth outlook for long-term holders [2][7]. Analyst and Institutional Sentiment - Analysts have shifted to a bullish stance, with a consensus rating of Hold and increased price targets initiated in late 2025, continuing into early 2026 [3]. - Institutional ownership stands at 60%, with significant buying activity noted in Q4 2025, indicating a shift towards accumulation as the stock price reached a fresh low [4]. Financial Forecasts - UPS forecasts net revenue of $89.7 billion, approximately 300 basis points above consensus estimates, with growth expected a year earlier than previously anticipated [4]. - Margins are projected to remain strong, suggesting a leveraged earnings rebound is forthcoming [4]. Dividend and Buyback Strategy - The stock yields over 6% and is expected to sustain distribution increases, with 2026 guidance indicating slightly higher payments than in 2025 [5]. - Buybacks reduced the share count by approximately 0.7% in 2025, with expectations for continued reductions in 2026 [5]. Overall Market Position - UPS has returned to growth sooner than expected, with stock price in rebound mode and reliable capital returns anticipated in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft Corp (MSFT) shares have declined by 2.4% to $459.49, marking a potential third consecutive loss, while rival Alphabet (GOOGL) reached a $4 trillion market cap due to its AI partnership with Apple (AAPL) [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - MSFT has pulled back to its 260-day moving average, currently within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR) [2] - Historically, this signal has occurred nine times in the past decade, with MSFT being higher one month later 78% of the time, averaging a 3.8% gain [2] - A similar move could push MSFT above $477 [2] Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - Options traders are leaning bullish, indicated by a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 2.11, which is higher than 72% of readings from the past year [4] - MSFT's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 30%, ranking in the 34th percentile of the last 12 months, suggesting that options are currently very affordable [4]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its third consecutive gain of over 15% in 2025, although not all stocks performed well, particularly after the tariff re-rating in April [2] - Market fluctuations can lead to previously underperforming stocks becoming attractive again, with a focus on three stocks that recently triggered a key technical signal indicating potential recovery in 2026 [3][6] Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used technical analysis tool that measures the momentum of stock price trends, providing insights across various timeframes and asset classes [3][4] - An RSI reading above 70 indicates that a stock is 'Overbought', suggesting a potential for a price correction, while a reading below 30 indicates 'Oversold' conditions, where stocks may be undervalued and poised for a rebound [4][5] - The RSI is not infallible, and while it can signal potential buying opportunities, further investigation is necessary to understand the underlying reasons for a stock's oversold status [5]

Core Viewpoint - Roblox Corp. (NYSE:RBLX) has experienced significant stock price decline since its third-quarter earnings report, despite solid financial performance, due to investor concerns about future profitability and growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - The third-quarter earnings report showed that Roblox exceeded estimates for bookings and had a less-than-expected loss per share, yet the stock price fell sharply [1]. - RBLX stock has lost approximately 32% over the past six months, indicating a significant downturn in investor sentiment [3]. Market Sentiment and Analyst Insights - Investors were primarily concerned about the costs associated with safety initiatives targeting younger consumers, which could impact future profitability [2]. - Analyst Drew Crum from B. Riley Securities noted the potential for Roblox to become a leading entertainment platform, emphasizing the opportunity for compounding social and content network effects [4]. Potential for Recovery - There are indications that RBLX stock may rebound, as Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has made substantial purchases of RBLX shares, acquiring a total of 169,130 shares [3]. - The concept of seller exhaustion may be relevant, suggesting that the significant decline in stock price could mean that most sellers have already exited, potentially leading to a stabilization or recovery [5]. Valuation and Trading Strategy - RBLX stock is currently trading at a lower sales multiple compared to previous months, which may attract contrarian buyers looking for discounted opportunities [6]. - Forward price outcomes for RBLX stock are projected to range between $50 and $130, with a peak probability density near $80, indicating a potential upward bias [12]. Options Trading Perspective - A proposed trading strategy involves a bull call spread with a target price of $100, which could yield a profit of over 481% if the stock rises above the $100 strike price by expiration [18]. - The analysis suggests that the stock may experience heightened activity between $80 and $110 before settling near $80, based on historical patterns [16].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands is showing signs of recovery in early 2026 after a challenging 2025, with a notable rebound in stock performance and better-than-expected earnings results [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion, a decline of 10% year-over-year, but exceeded analysts' expectations by approximately $52 million [4]. - The company reported comparable earnings per share of $3.06, down about 6% from the previous year, yet significantly better than the consensus estimate of $2.63, which anticipated a 19% drop [4]. - The beer segment, which constitutes around 90% of revenue, experienced a sales drop of 1%, but this was an improvement compared to the broader beer industry, allowing Constellation to gain market share [5]. Market Dynamics - Despite a general weakness in the beer market, Constellation's beer business has consistently outperformed, leading the beer category in dollar share gains during Q1 and Q2 FY2026 [5]. - The operating margin for the beer segment increased by 10 basis points, indicating effective cost management amidst declining sales [5]. Investor Sentiment - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Constellation Brands, reflecting long-term confidence in the company's recovery potential despite the stock's previous downturn [6]. - As of January 8, 2026, Constellation shares have risen over 7% in the new year and have rebounded approximately 16% since hitting a low of around $128 in November 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth Group is expected to rebound in stock performance by 2026, despite facing challenges in 2023 due to misjudgments in cost projections and a significant drop in stock price [3][11][19] Company Overview - UnitedHealth Group is a Minnesota-based managed care company, the largest in the U.S. with approximately 23% market share, offering Medicare and Medicaid supplemental plans and health insurance for individuals and businesses [6][15] - The company has consistently raised its dividend for the last 16 years, currently yielding 2.25% per share, which is above the healthcare sector average of 1.6% [16][15] Financial Performance - In 2023, UnitedHealth Group's stock price has decreased by about 35%, primarily following a disappointing first-quarter earnings report that missed analysts' expectations for the first time since 2008 [7][11] - The third-quarter earnings report showed revenue of $113.2 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, but earnings fell sharply to $4.3 billion from $8.7 billion in Q3 2024, with profit margins dropping to 2.1% from 6% [13][14] Challenges and Solutions - The company miscalculated service costs when setting 2025 customer premiums, leading to an increase in medical costs by $6.5 billion, which has impacted profit margins [11][12] - Management plans to rectify these issues by adjusting Medicare Advantage bids and potentially exiting unprofitable markets, targeting a profit margin range of 2% to 4% for 2026 and 2027 [12][11] Market Position and Valuation - UnitedHealth Group's current price-to-earnings ratio is 17.2, significantly lower than its five-year average of 25.2, indicating that the stock is undervalued at present [18][19] - The stock is expected to appreciate as the company addresses its profit margin issues, making it an attractive investment opportunity [19][18]

Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation, listed on NASDAQ as BLBD, is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America with a history of innovation and quality in the transportation industry [1] Recent Performance - BLBD's recent performance shows a monthly decline of 1.28%, with a sharper loss of 7.40% in the past 10 days, which may present a strategic entry point for investors despite initial concerns [2] Growth Potential - The growth potential for BLBD is significant, with an estimated increase of 43.70%, indicating that the current market price may not fully reflect the company's value [3][6] Financial Health - A Piotroski Score of 8 for BLBD indicates strong financial health, reflecting the company's profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency, suggesting it is well-managed and financially stable [4][6] Target Price - The target price for BLBD is set at $73, which aligns with its growth potential and suggests a substantial increase from its current price, reflecting confidence in the company's market position and financial strength [5][6]