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Procter & Gamble Drops 11.9% in 3 Months: Buy the Dip or Stay Wary?
ZACKS· 2025-12-10 19:06
Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble Company (PG) has experienced a significant decline in performance due to softer category demand, increased promotional activities, and a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly in North America and Europe [1][13][15] Performance Summary - PG shares have dropped 11.9% over the past three months, underperforming the broader sector and the S&P 500 index, while slightly outperforming the Consumer Products - Staples industry [2][24] - The Consumer Staples sector has declined by 6.2% in the same period, while the S&P 500 has increased by 5.1% [2] - PG has reached new 52-week lows, with a low of $144.09 on November 10, 2025, and further down to $138.14 on December 8, 2025 [6][7] Competitive Landscape - PG's performance is weaker compared to competitors such as Unilever Plc, BJ's Wholesale Club, and Albertsons Companies, which saw declines of 10.3%, 7.8%, and 7.9%, respectively [7][14] - The company's market share has decreased by 30 basis points over the past three and six months due to intensified competition and promotional activities [14][15] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PG's fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS remains unchanged, indicating expected year-over-year growth of 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively, for fiscal 2026 [17] - For fiscal 2026, PG projects organic sales growth of up to 4% and modest EPS expansion, supported by innovation-led pricing and restructuring initiatives [19][20] Valuation Analysis - PG trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19.42X, which is a premium compared to industry peers, despite being below its five-year high of 26.67X [21][22] - Competitors like Unilever and Albertsons have lower forward P/E ratios of 18.14X and 8.34X, respectively, while BJ's Wholesale Club has a slightly higher ratio of 19.54X [23] Investor Sentiment - Despite recent stock declines, PG's premium valuation suggests that investors still recognize its strong brand equity and long-term earnings potential [24][25] - Management's reaffirmed guidance and early benefits from restructuring initiatives indicate confidence in navigating current challenges [25][26]