Key Points The S&P 500 has produced impressive gains for three years straight. The recent gains have well exceeded the average returns for the index. Many investors may be wondering if the party is about to end, and history can be a great guide. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Investors are having another banner year in 2025. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is up more than 14% year to date as of this writing. That follows exceptionally strong years in 2023 and 2024, when the index ret ...

The consumer price index for September showed that core inflation unexpectedly cooled in September. The Federal Reserve is a lock to cut its key interest rate at next week's policy meeting and likely keep on cutting, thanks to easing services inflation and only a moderate bite from Trump tariffs. The S&P 500 turned on the gains after the CPI, with Intel (INTC) leading the way on the strength of an upbeat demand outlook. For now, the Fed has a clear bias toward rate cuts because its concern about the risk of ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report discusses the stock market dynamics and economic conditions in 2025, drawing parallels with the year 2000. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Playbook**: The report suggests that a good investment strategy for 2025 is to view it as '2000 with some tweaks' [4][3][22]. 2. **Similarities Between 2025 and 2000**: - Both years experienced a countertrend rally in the stock market before a tech bubble deflation [4][6]. - The US economy is not heading towards an imminent recession [4][24]. - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to significantly cut interest rates [4][24]. - Stock market peaks in both years followed unusual 40% rallies in the S&P 500, concentrated in tech stocks (AI in 2025, dot com in 2000) [9][8]. 3. **Differences Between 2025 and 2000**: - The US stock market and government bonds are expected to underperform compared to non-US markets [4][24]. - The dollar is projected to underperform against other major currencies [4][24]. - The AI bubble is less extreme than the dot com bubble in some measures [17][19]. - The trend growth rate of the global economy is lower in 2025, increasing vulnerability to recession [19]. - Global indebtedness is significantly higher in 2025 than in 2000, giving 'bond vigilantes' more power [19]. - The political landscape, particularly the arrival of President Trump 2.0, has affected the haven status of US T-bonds and the dollar [19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Economic Shock**: In both years, tech stock selloffs were triggered by global growth shocks, with 2025's shock stemming from a trade embargo on China [12][12]. 2. **Labour Market Conditions**: The US labour market in both years showed a rare configuration where labour demand exceeded supply, with job vacancy rates unusually high compared to unemployment rates [11][13]. 3. **Future Projections**: - A countertrend rally in tech stocks is expected through early summer 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching over 6000 before a resumption of the AI bubble's deflation [24]. - A mild recession in the US could occur in 2026 due to a 'negative wealth effect' [24]. - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates significantly in the latter half of 2025, similar to the second half of 2000 [24]. - Preference for UK gilts over US T-bonds and for currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc over the US dollar is advised [24].