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Will Coinbase's Subscription & Services Revenues Fuel its Top Line?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-11 17:40
Core Insights - Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) is diversifying its income by expanding subscriptions and services revenues, which are becoming increasingly important as transaction revenues remain sensitive to market volatility [1][4] - Subscription and services revenues contributed approximately 36% to COIN's net revenues in Q1 2025, up from 32% in Q1 2024, indicating consistent growth in this area [3][8] - The company expects subscription and services revenues to range between $600 million and $680 million in Q2 2025, despite anticipated declines in blockchain rewards revenues [4][8] Subscription and Services Revenue Growth - USDC-related stablecoin income is a significant driver of subscription and services revenues, with rising average USDC balances expected to enhance these revenues [2][3] - Key factors influencing subscription and services revenues include fluctuations in USDC demand, interest rates, and partnerships, particularly with organizations like Circle [3] - The management's strategy focuses on scaling subscription and services through stablecoin income, staking services, and increasing uptake of Coinbase One and custody solutions [4] Competitive Landscape - COIN competes with Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers Group, both of which have shown steady growth in their subscription and services revenues [5][6] - Robinhood's subscription revenues are driven by its Robinhood Gold program, while Interactive Brokers benefits from non-commission revenue streams that complement its brokerage model [5][6] Financial Performance and Valuation - COIN's shares have gained 3.7% year to date, outperforming the industry [7] - The company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.1, significantly above the industry average of 18.7, indicating a potentially expensive valuation [10] - Consensus estimates for COIN's EPS have seen downward revisions for Q2 and Q3 2025, while estimates for full-year 2025 and 2026 EPS show increases [11][12]