Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT, indicating a growing output [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] India Sugar Production - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to a potentially bumper sugar crop [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]