Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.11 (+0.77%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +1.70 (+0.41%) [1] - Sugar prices rebounded after initial losses due to a stronger Brazilian real, which reached a 2.5-week high against the dollar, leading to mild fund short covering in sugar futures [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September rose by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.17% from 47.73% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for 2025-26 through September increased by +0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Projections indicate Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 million tons for the same period [3] Group 4: Indian Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a significant decline of -17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - Sugar trader Sucden indicated that India may divert only 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 million tons [5]