Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with NY sugar reaching a 5-week high while London sugar is slightly down, influenced by the strength of the Brazilian real against the dollar [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Brazilian real's rise to a 1-week high is supporting sugar prices by discouraging export sales from Brazil's producers [1] - StoneX has revised its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate down to 41.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 42.1 MMT, providing carryover support for sugar prices [2] - India's food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to a reduction in sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 million metric tons, reflecting a significant increase from the previous estimate of 7.5 million metric tons [5] Group 3: Production Trends - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a bullish outlook for sugar output [6] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of October increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 2.068 MMT, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar [6]

Core Insights - World sugar futures experienced a 4% increase in Q3 2025 but were down 16.4% for the first nine months of the year, settling at 16.10 cents per pound on September 30, 2025 [1] - Sugar prices have been in a consolidation range, primarily between 16 and 17 cents per pound, following a significant decline from a high of 28.14 cents per pound in November 2023 to a low of 15.44 cents per pound in July 2025 [4][6] - The sugar market has lagged behind other soft commodities like cocoa and coffee, which have reached record highs [5][6] Price Trends - Nearby ICE world sugar futures were trading at 16.28 cents per pound and have shown relative stability since early August 2025 [2] - The continuous ICE world sugar futures contract closed 2024 at 19.26 cents per pound, indicating a significant drop in prices over the following months [3] Market Dynamics - Sugar prices have declined over 45% from their November 2023 high, while other soft commodities have seen price increases due to various factors including adverse weather and rising production costs [6] - The bullish case for sugar prices includes rising production costs, potential upward price movement from the current consolidation phase, and increased demand due to changing regulations on sugar substitutes in the U.S. [7]