Ripple RLUSD. Photo by BeInCrypto XRP reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) fell sharply in 2025, dropping from roughly 4 billion tokens at the start of the year to around 1.6–1.7 billion by December. This marks the lowest levels since 2018, prompting speculation over whether a supply shock could emerge in 2026. However, analysts caution that low exchange balances alone may not translate into immediate price pressure or a sustained rally. XRP Exchange Reserve Decline in Historical Context Data from G ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 with a negative yearly return of 6%, marking the first time in a post-halving year that it ended in the red, deviating from historical trends [2][6] - The traditional "4-year cycle" associated with Bitcoin's halving events is being questioned, with some analysts suggesting it may be evolving due to market maturation rather than being entirely broken [4][6] Historical Performance - Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked in the year following the halving, with significant positive returns observed in previous cycles: - 2012-2013: +8,480% to +7,000% - 2016-2017: +285% to +1,300% - 2020-2021: +560% - 2024-2025: -6% to -7%, the weakest post-halving performance on record [3][4] Market Dynamics - The impact of Bitcoin's halving events appears to be diminishing in an increasingly institutionalized market, with the 2024 halving reducing issuance from 1.7% to 0.85% annually, as approximately 94% of Bitcoin is already mined [7] - Institutional dominance has increased, with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 leading to cumulative inflows of approximately $56–$87 billion, tying Bitcoin more closely to traditional risk assets [7] Correlation and Macro Factors - Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose significantly in 2025, indicating its behavior as a "macro asset" sensitive to interest rates, liquidity, and equity sentiment [7] - Macro headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and Fed policy tightening, contributed to Bitcoin's underperformance, with it lagging behind gold, which performed well as a traditional hedge [7] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The early bull run in 2024 was driven by ETF hype, peaking early in 2025 before a correction occurred, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [7] - Reduced retail speculation is evident, with lower volatility and perpetual futures basis rates reflecting a more mature trading environment dominated by institutional players, accounting for 60% or more of trading volume [7]

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Economist Justin Wolfers criticized President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the rising prices, noting that his promises on the campaign trail were never realistic to begin with. Trump’s ‘Original Sin’ On Sunday, Wolfers said that Trump’s “original sin” was telling voters that prices would fall, even though “in a healthy economy, they almost never do,” during his appearance on MS Now’s “Velshi.” Wolfers said ...

The XRP ETFs are eating XRP alive in the sense of the ETFs are eating up the supply and this is exactly what we want to see. Now the ETF launches have been very very successful and with that success and if that success continues then it will demand a higher price for XRP. I think that a lot of people kind of look at the ETFs and say, "Oh, well, they weren't that successful because they never actually led to any significant price drive." Um, and again, we are in a down market.And I want to stress that. Um, e ...

The supply of HAR is diminishing and we have to talk about this because this could potentially lead to a supply shock. Now the supply shock is not going to happen tomorrow or next week but it will happen over time especially as more and more supply is taken off of exchanges and we have to address this. we have to talk about it and we definitely will in this video.But let's first start off with the price chart because we are just in this extended wedge at this point and we're just waiting for something to ha ...

Supply Dynamics - Bitcoin halving reduces daily emissions by 50% from 7,200 to 3,600 in 40 days [1] - Grayscale launches ETFs and increases stakes, competing for half the available supply [1] - Supply shock math is significant when institutions require allocation [1] Token & Integration - Subnet tokens are getting CEX listings [1] - Polymarket integrations are underway [1] - Quantum processor connections are being established [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is considered too restrictive, with a neutral rate that is believed to be significantly lower than the current policy stance [1][2][14]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The argument for maintaining a less restrictive policy is based on a more optimistic view of inflation compared to other committee members, suggesting that prolonged restrictive policies could lead to an economic downturn [2][16]. - The concept of "passive tightening" is introduced, indicating that as neutral rates shift, the existing policy can become tighter without any active changes [14][15]. - The discussion highlights that financial market conditions may appear easier, but this does not necessarily reflect the true stance of monetary policy, as various factors influence market dynamics [4][7][8]. Group 2: Financial Conditions and Market Dynamics - Financial conditions affecting housing and private credit markets are noted to be tighter, contrasting with the perception of easier conditions in stock markets [8][31]. - The impact of alternative data on the labor market is acknowledged, suggesting that it indicates a decline in demand, which aligns with the view that current policy is too tight [28][30]. - Concerns are raised about the potential for unrecognized distress in private markets, which could signal broader issues related to the restrictive stance of monetary policy [31][33].

france proposing 420k btc reserve. that's 6% of all liquid bitcoin supply. they're not buying it, they're mining it with 56 nuclear reactors through mara/exaion partnership. former engie ceo already bridging edf infrastructure to btc operations. when sovereign nations start printing bitcoin with nuclear power instead of buying spot, the supply shock hits different ...

aave locks 4.2 million eth as collateral. all eth etfs combined hold 3.1 million. defi protocols control 35% more eth supply than tradfi etfs yet traders price eth based on grayscale outflows. $14.7b in eth/steth frozen in aave lending pools at 82% market dominance. supply shock building in plain sight. ...

bitmine holds 2.7% of all eth supply and targets 5%. that's another 3 million eth they need to buy. $13b at current prices. they accumulated 379,271 eth during the october crash at $3,935 average through falconx otc desks. no market impact, just supply disappearing. eth exchange reserves at 3-year lows and this entity needs to double their position. supply shocks hit harder than demand rallies ...