Overall Trend - Short-term fluctuations are expected, but long-term stability is anticipated [2] - In the first half of the year, core urban second-hand housing prices may rise by 5%-10% due to policy easing and pent-up demand release. However, if policies tighten or economic recovery is weaker than expected in the second half, housing prices may enter a plateau phase, with some suburban new homes facing price pressure [2] - Regional differentiation is intensifying, with core areas (within the fourth ring) showing strong price resilience supported by scarce resources like education and healthcare, potentially maintaining high prices of 80,000-150,000 yuan per square meter [2] Key Influencing Factors - The policy environment remains unchanged with a focus on "housing for living, not speculation," and slight adjustments to purchase restrictions. Mortgage rates are expected to remain low (first home loan rates at 3.25%-3.8%) [2] - The government aims to stabilize the market through increased supply of affordable housing and promoting inventory digestion [2] - The supply-demand relationship is easing due to increased affordable housing supply and a slowdown in population growth, although the scarcity of quality housing in core areas continues to support prices [2] Regional Breakdown Forecast - In core areas (Xicheng, Dongcheng, Haidian), new home prices are expected to rise slightly (0.1%-2%), while second-hand home prices may see a slight decline [2] - In suburban areas (Chaoyang, Fengtai), prices are expected to rise steadily due to improvement-driven demand [2] - In remote suburbs and surrounding areas (Yanjiao, Gu'an), high inventory and insufficient amenities may lead to a price decline of 5%-10% [2] Considerations - Predictions carry significant uncertainty, with core area prices influenced by both policy and economic factors, potentially leading to slight fluctuations [2] - Investment recommendations focus on properties in core areas with strong amenities and product strength, while avoiding regions with high inventory in remote suburbs [2]