1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Iran event will have a bullish impact on copper prices, but high inventories may limit the price increase elasticity. The strategy of buying copper on dips remains unchanged, and attention can be paid to risk - free term arbitrage opportunities. For options, different strategies are proposed for different scenarios [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Impact of the Iran Event on Copper Prices - The US - Israel joint military strike on Iran has led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked. This event is a bullish driver for copper prices as it may reduce Iran's copper concentrate and refined copper exports, impact global supply, and increase raw material and transportation costs. The strategic nature of metals may also attract long - position capital allocation [1] - In 2025, Iran exported about 250,000 tons of copper concentrate, all transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade may disrupt the transportation channel, making the global copper concentrate supply shortage more severe and putting downward pressure on the spot TC of copper concentrate, which will impact copper smelting output. Iran's copper production in 2025 was about 400,000 tons, with an estimated 30% - 40% for export (120,000 - 150,000 tons). The blockade will indirectly and directly affect the global refined copper supply by 370,000 - 400,000 tons per year, accounting for about 1.4% of the global total. It will also expand the global copper supply - demand gap in 2026. Additionally, increased costs and supply panic will support prices [2] Current Market Situation - High copper prices have significantly suppressed traditional industry consumption, and the actual demand for copper is weak. Domestic social inventories are at a record high for the same period, and the global total inventory has reached 1.4 million tons, which may limit the price increase elasticity [2] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading strategy**: The idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. If the impact of the event weakens, positions should be closed in time [3] - **Arbitrage strategy**: The C - structure spread of SHFE copper futures is large, and low - cost funds can focus on risk - free term arbitrage opportunities [3] Option Strategies - **On - exchange options**: The implied volatility of SHFE copper options is still in a downward trend. If the market is in a strong shock, a trinomial spread strategy can be constructed by selling out - of - the - money put options and buying bull call spreads to capture small - scale upward gains [4] - **Off - exchange options**: For industrial enterprises with exposure to copper price increase risks, it is recommended to appropriately arrange circuit - breaker fixed - payout accumulator options to optimize spot costs, gradually establish low - position long - hedging positions during a mild market adjustment, and obtain sufficient cash income subsidies when the market rises rapidly [5]