The Zacks Transportation - Rail industry faces challenges, ranging from tariff-induced economic uncertainties, inflationary pressures and resultant high interest rates to concerns pertaining to supply-chain disruptions.Despite the challenges surrounding the industry, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) and CSX Corporation (CSX) appear better placed to tide over the challenges. Declining fuel costs represent a tailwind as far as bottom-line growth is concerned.Industry Description The Zacks Transportation - Rail ...

Core Insights - The Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry is currently facing significant challenges due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions and a softer-than-expected demand environment, leading to weaker package volumes [1][2] Industry Overview - Companies in the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry provide air delivery and freight services, often offering specialized transportation and logistics solutions [3] - The health of these companies is closely tied to the overall economy, with major players like UPS transporting millions of packages daily [4] Key Trends - **Demand Slowdown**: There is a notable decline in shipping demand, particularly in Asia and Europe, with the Cass Freight Shipments Index declining by 5.4% year-over-year in September, marking a deteriorating trend over the past seven months [5] - **Rising Cost Pressures**: The industry is experiencing persistent cost inflation, including labor shortages and increased maintenance costs, which are squeezing profitability [6] - **Tariff Turmoil**: Protectionist tariff policies from the U.S. administration are reshaping the transportation service industry, increasing costs and disrupting supply chains [7] - **Fed Rate Cuts**: The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts signal potential relief for the industry by lowering borrowing costs [8][9] Industry Performance - The Zacks Air Freight and Cargo industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 187, placing it in the bottom 23% of 244 Zacks industries, indicating murky near-term prospects [10] - The industry's earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased by 2.3% since September 2025, reflecting a negative outlook [11] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed the S&P 500, decreasing by 20.4% compared to the S&P 500's growth of 14.2% [13] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 8.72X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.24X and the sector's 10.03X [14] Company Highlights - **United Parcel Service (UPS)**: UPS is recognized for its shareholder-friendly activities, including dividends and buybacks, supported by robust free cash flow generation and cost-cutting efforts [15][16] - **FedEx Corp. (FDX)**: FedEx is also noted for rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with a solid liquidity position and effective cost-cutting measures [17]

Core Insights - Boeing Company's shares have increased by 9.9% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense industry's growth of 32.5% [1][8] - The company is facing challenges such as labor shortages and ongoing supply-chain issues [1][3] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Boeing - Boeing is experiencing supply-chain disruptions, including shortages of engines and critical components, which are delaying aircraft deliveries and increasing production costs [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges may prolong these supply constraints until the end of 2025 [4] - According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), aircraft deliveries are currently about 30% below their previous peak, resulting in a record global aircraft backlog of 17,000 units, which negatively impacts Boeing's near-term revenue prospects [5][23] Group 2: Factors Supporting Boeing - Boeing remains a leading aircraft manufacturer in the U.S., with a 38% year-over-year growth in aircraft deliveries for Q3 2025, leading to a 49% increase in revenues for its Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) segment [10][8] - The company secured 161 net commercial airplane orders in the third quarter, which is expected to enhance long-term revenue performance [11] - A new contract-and-delivery mechanism called Rapid Delivery Release (RDR) is anticipated to improve delivery times to military customers, benefiting Boeing's operational efficiency [12] Group 3: Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boeing's earnings per share (EPS) indicates a significant decrease of 310.48% for 2025 and 34.86% for 2026 over the past 60 days [13] - Boeing's trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) is negative and below the peer group's average, indicating insufficient returns on investments [17] - Boeing's forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 1.57X, which is lower than the industry's average of 2.35X, suggesting a discount in valuation compared to peers [18][19]

Core Insights - GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) shares have increased by 0.2% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks Alternate Energy – Other industry's growth of 9.2% [1][7] - The company is facing significant risks related to supply-chain disruptions, which include high costs and unavailability of necessary products, components, and raw materials [1][21] Challenges Faced by GEV - GE Vernova is experiencing difficulties due to global supply-chain issues affecting various industries, including its own [3] - The company relies on complex global supply networks for components in gas turbines, wind turbines, and grid infrastructure, purchasing nearly $20 billion in materials from over 100 countries [4] - Disruptions in raw material availability and logistical delays are impacting production timelines and increasing input costs, which could hurt profitability [4][21] Business Operations and Performance - GEV designs and delivers advanced industrial products and software-driven solutions for complex projects, including gas turbines, wind turbines, and nuclear power [5] - The company has approximately 57,000 wind turbine units with a total installed capacity exceeding 120 GW, capitalizing on the growing wind sector [9] - GEV's diversified business across Power, Wind, and Electrification allows it to offer a comprehensive suite of solutions, appealing to a broad customer base [10] Earnings Estimates and Financial Metrics - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined by 2.04% and 3.42%, respectively, over the past 60 days [7][11] - GEV has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 38.03% [13] - The company's trailing 12-month return on equity is 13.23%, lower than the sector average of 15.07% [15] Valuation and Market Position - GEV is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis [17] - Other alternative energy stocks, such as Crescent Energy Company and Talen Energy, are trading at a discount compared to the industry's P/E [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry is facing a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent inflation, tariff-related tensions, and supply-chain disruptions, alongside geopolitical issues [1][5]. Industry Overview - The industry encompasses companies that provide equipment financing, leasing, and supply-chain management services, including aircraft, railcar, and intermodal container lessors. It also includes logistics and transportation solutions for a diverse customer base, primarily in automotive, electronics, transportation, grocery, lumber, food service, and home furnishing sectors [3]. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Companies like Wabtec Corporation and Ryder System are noted for their shareholder-friendly initiatives, such as dividend payouts and share buybacks, indicating strong financial health. Ryder recently approved a 12% dividend increase, raising its quarterly cash dividend to 91 cents per share, while Wabtec announced a 25% increase, raising its quarterly cash dividend from 20 cents to 25 cents [2][4]. Economic Challenges - The industry is grappling with ongoing tariff tensions and inflation, which contribute to economic uncertainty and may hinder stock performance. Supply-chain disruptions and rising operating costs are also limiting growth potential [5][6]. Industry Ranking and Performance - The Zacks Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 75, placing it in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries. However, it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and the broader sector over the past year, declining 18.4% against the S&P 500's increase of 18.7% [7][9][10]. Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.99X, which is lower than the S&P 500's 23.52X and the sector's 13.84X. Historically, the industry has traded between 8.42X and 15.65X over the past five years [13]. Notable Companies to Watch - **Wabtec Corporation**: Focused on technology-based locomotives and services, Wabtec has shown strong earnings performance, with a 17.6% expected earnings growth rate for 2025 [17][19]. - **Ryder System**: A logistics and transportation company with a long history of dividend payments, Ryder has an expected earnings growth rate of 9.3% for 2025 [22][23]. - **The Greenbrier Companies**: Specializing in railroad freight car equipment, Greenbrier has a notable earnings surprise history and an expected earnings growth rate of 33.1% for 2025 [26][28].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Transportation-Services industry is currently facing challenges such as dull freight rates, high inflation, and ongoing supply-chain disruptions, along with tariff-related uncertainties and geopolitical issues [1][4][7] - Companies in this industry provide logistics, leasing, and maintenance services, focusing on global logistics management and third-party logistics solutions [3] Current Trends - Supply-chain disruptions and weak freight rates continue to negatively impact the industry, with the Cass Freight Shipments Index declining by 2.4% year over year in June, marking a deterioration for 11 consecutive months [4] - The industry is experiencing significant inflation, particularly in labor and freight costs, prompting companies to implement cost-cutting measures to improve productivity and efficiency [5] - Despite economic recovery, the industry's earnings outlook is negative, with a 31.2% decrease in earnings estimates for 2025 since August 2024 [10] Financial Performance - The Zacks Transportation-Services industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining by 12.8% over the past year, while the S&P 500 appreciated by 12.2% [12] - The industry is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.32X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 5.26X and the sector's 1.45X [15] Company Highlights - Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and has consistently beaten earnings estimates by an average of 13.3% over the last four quarters, despite facing weak volumes [17] - C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 14.5% in the past four quarters, with a strong liquidity position [21] - Matson (MATX), also with a Zacks Rank 3, has implemented effective cost-management actions and has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 9.7% [24]

Core Insights - Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc is investing $75 million to expand its Aiken, SC facility to increase production of MTU Series 4000 engines, addressing rising U.S. demand for high-power backup generators [1][9] - The company previously announced a $24 million investment in its Mankato, MN facility, which is expected to boost production of MTU Series 4000 generator sets by over 120% by 2026 [2][9] - The MTU Series 4000 engines are crucial for powering essential infrastructures such as hospitals, airports, and data centers [3] Company Performance - Rolls-Royce shares have increased by 88.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense Equipment industry's growth of 25.7% and the broader Zacks Aerospace sector's gain of 25.9% [5][9] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 34.93X, which is a discount compared to the industry average of 49.12X, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [19][20] Industry Context - The expansion of manufacturing capacity for MTU engines is timely given the increasing energy demand in the U.S., which may present investment opportunities in Rolls-Royce [4][9] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising global air traffic, which is driving demand for commercial jets and aircraft engines [10] - The Defence segment is gaining traction due to increased global defense spending amid geopolitical tensions, with recent contract wins expected to bolster long-term revenue growth [11] Future Growth Prospects - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 24.4% year-over-year growth in sales for 2025 and an 8.5% improvement for 2026, reflecting positive growth expectations [15] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 also show an upward trend, indicating growing analyst confidence in the company's earnings potential [15][17] Technological Advancements - Rolls-Royce is advancing in clean energy technologies, including hydrogen-powered engines and sustainable aviation fuel, which are expected to enhance its market position [12][13] - The company has made significant improvements to its Trent 1000 and Trent 7000 engines, which are anticipated to extend engine life by 30% by the end of 2025, potentially unlocking new contracts [10]

Core Insights - Advanced aerospace and defense technologies are increasingly attractive for investment due to a booming commercial aviation sector and rising global defense budgets amid intensifying threats [1] - Companies like RTX Corporation (RTX) and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) are well-positioned to benefit from growing demand in missile defense, cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and space systems [1] Company Profiles - RTX is recognized for advanced aircraft engines, missiles, radars, sensors, hypersonic, and space-based systems, while LHX specializes in tactical communication systems, ISR systems, space payloads, propulsion, and missile defense systems [2] - RTX has a diversified portfolio that includes a strong presence in commercial aviation, while LHX has divested its commercial aviation segment to focus on defense [9] Financials and Growth Catalysts - As of March 31, 2025, RTX reported $5.16 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with long-term debt of $38.24 billion and current debt of $3.06 billion, indicating strong short-term liquidity [4] - L3Harris, as of March 28, 2025, held only $0.22 billion in cash against long-term debt of $10.98 billion and current debt of $1.28 billion, reflecting limited financial flexibility [5] - The proposed 13% increase in the U.S. defense budget to $1.01 trillion for fiscal 2026 is expected to benefit both companies, particularly in space systems [6] - A $175 billion allocation for the Golden Dome missile defense system positions both companies to secure contracts, with LHX's HBTSS and RTX's AN/TPY-2 radar showcasing their technological advancements [7] Market Performance - RTX has underperformed LHX over the past three months, with RTX up 6.9% compared to LHX's 19.7%, but RTX has outperformed LHX over the past year with a 26.2% increase versus LHX's 7.2% [15] - RTX is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 21.22X, slightly below LHX's 21.53X, indicating a more attractive valuation for RTX [16] Challenges - Supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages pose significant challenges for both companies, with RTX potentially more adversely impacted due to its commercial aerospace exposure [10][11] - The aerospace-defense industry faces high turnover rates, with attrition among AIA members averaging 13%, which could affect operational efficiency for both RTX and LHX [12] Conclusion - RTX is considered a more compelling stock due to its diversified growth avenues, better earnings outlook, and attractive valuation despite its higher debt load [20][21]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Aerospace-Defense industry includes companies that design and manufacture military and commercial aircraft, combat vehicles, missiles, and space transportation vehicles [2] - It also encompasses cybersecurity firms providing IT services and C4ISR solutions, along with defense contractors offering spare parts and maintenance services [3] Key Trends - Improved air traffic outlook is boosting growth prospects, with global air passenger traffic revenue per kilometer increasing by 3.3% year over year to 738.8 billion [4] - The U.S. defense budget is projected to increase by 13% to $1.01 trillion for fiscal year 2026, which will benefit defense-focused companies [5] - Supply-chain disruptions continue to pose challenges, particularly affecting smaller suppliers in the commercial aerospace sector, with a projected drop in aircraft deliveries from 2,293 to 1,802 in 2025 due to these bottlenecks [6][7] Industry Performance - The Aerospace-Defense industry has underperformed compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite and its own sector, with a collective gain of 7.2% over the past year, while the Aerospace sector grew by 11.9% and the S&P 500 by 8.3% [12] - The industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 92, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [9] Valuation Metrics - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month EV/Sales ratio of 2.82, compared to the S&P 500's 4.86 and the sector's 2.51 [15] Company Highlights - **Airbus Group**: Revenues improved by 6% year over year, with earnings per share increasing by 33%. The 2025 sales estimate is $82.57 billion, reflecting a 10.4% increase from the previous year [18][19] - **Leidos Holdings**: Revenues grew by 7% year over year to $4.25 billion, with adjusted earnings up by 30%. The 2025 sales estimate indicates a 2.7% improvement from 2024 [22][23] - **Huntington Ingalls Industries**: Received orders worth $2.1 billion in the first quarter, with a total backlog of $48 billion as of March 31, 2025. The 2025 sales estimate shows a 3.5% increase from 2024 [26][27]