COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SS) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO SHIPPING Holdings - **Stock Codes**: 601919.SS (A-shares), 1919.HK (H-shares) - **Market Cap**: Rmb244.4 billion / $35.4 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb172.4 billion / $25.0 billion - **Current Price**: Rmb15.26 (A-shares), HK$14.95 (H-shares) - **12-month Price Target**: Rmb13.50 (A-shares), HK$10.60 (H-shares) - **Rating**: Sell Key Industry Insights - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Management expects the industry net supply to narrow to only 1 percentage point (ppt) in 2026, with demand growth slowing to 3-4% YoY compared to 4-5% YoY in 2025. Supply growth is projected at 4-5% YoY, excluding any disruptions related to Hormuz [2][19] - **Cargo Volume Trends**: 1Q cargo volumes were dampened due to front-loading in 4Q25, but volumes began rebounding in late March. A weaker 3Q seasonality is anticipated, potentially starting earlier this year due to precautionary restocking amid inflation concerns [2][18] - **Europe Contract Renewals**: The majority of long-term contracts in Europe have been renewed with a modest YoY price decline, reflecting lower spot rates during negotiations in late 2025 [2][19] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for FY25 are Rmb219.5 billion, declining to Rmb210.1 billion in FY26E and further to Rmb208.8 billion in FY27E [6][12] - **EBITDA and EPS**: EBITDA is expected to decrease from Rmb53.5 billion in FY25 to Rmb42.3 billion in FY26E, with EPS dropping from Rmb1.96 to Rmb1.31 over the same period [6][12] - **Cost Management**: Fuel costs have doubled since late February, and management plans to partially pass these costs onto customers. However, they do not foresee a fuel supply shortage at major hub ports like Singapore and Rotterdam [2][19] Strategic Initiatives - **Fleet Management**: Management is considering new orders for smaller vessels (2-3k TEU) for feeder services to replace aging fleet capacity and mitigate high rental costs. As of December 2025, there are 54 vessels on order, with an additional 18 orders placed in January 2026 [2][19] - **Capital Return Policy**: The company aims for a dividend payout ratio of 30-50% through 2027, with recent payouts trending towards the higher end of this range. Share buybacks have included four batches totaling 866 million shares (Rmb9.8 billion) since 2023 [2][19] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Key risks include stronger-than-expected cargo volumes or slower supply growth, potential disruptions to effective capacity and freight rates, and the attractiveness of dividend yields in 2026E [19][20] - **Geopolitical Factors**: The impact of Middle East disruptions on global container trade is noted, with management redirecting cargoes to ports outside the Gulf and resuming bookings to Gulf destinations as of March 25 [19][20] Conclusion COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is navigating a challenging environment with expectations of narrowing supply-demand dynamics and declining freight rates. The company is focusing on strategic fleet management and maintaining a robust capital return policy while addressing rising operational costs and geopolitical risks. The current sell rating reflects concerns over profitability and market conditions in the near term.

Summary of China Jushi 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (600176.SS) - **Date of Call**: January 12, 2026 - **Participants**: Mr. Ding Chengche (Board Secretary), Ms. Xu Mengdan (IR Director) Key Industry Insights - **Cyclical Outlook**: Management anticipates 2024 as the cycle trough, 2025 as a recovery year, and 2026 as a favorable year with resilient demand and moderated supply growth [3][15] - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Expected supply growth of approximately 500,000 tons in 2026 compared to around 1 million tons in 2025. Demand growth in 2026 is estimated at around 6%, with potential upside to 8-9% [3][15] Financial Performance - **Fiberglass Profitability**: Profitability has stabilized at a higher level, with net profit per ton consistently exceeding RMB 800, currently around RMB 900-1000. Most peer producers are near breakeven [4][12] - **E-fabric Demand**: A broad-based recovery in E-fabric demand has been observed, with profitability exceeding RMB 1/sqm. Management expects to maintain this level in 2026 [5][13] Strategic Initiatives - **Capex Discipline**: Capital expenditures remain stable at RMB 3-5 billion, with maintenance capex capped at approximately RMB 1 billion [11] - **Low DK Fabrics**: Progress is being made in low DK products, with ongoing customer validation. Challenges remain in yield rates and process stability [8] Market Outlook - **Overseas Demand**: After a weak 2025 due to geopolitical factors, overseas demand is expected to recover in 2026, with exports guided at approximately 1.1 million tons and total shipments at around 3.3 million tons [9][10] - **US Plant Performance**: The US plant was loss-making in 2024 but significantly improved in 2025, with expected profitability in 2026 under current tariff conditions [10] Pricing Strategy - **Glassfiber Pricing**: Annual contract pricing is under negotiation, with moderate price increases expected. Jushi is avoiding aggressive price hikes to prevent triggering excess capacity [4][12] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker-than-expected demand for glass fiber products, rising energy costs, and greater-than-expected capacity additions [15] - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected demand and supply-side discipline that could help protect margins [15] Valuation - **Target Price**: The target price for Jushi is set at RMB 19.8/share, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8x on 2026 estimated net income [14] Conclusion - The call reinforces a more constructive medium-term outlook for China Jushi, with a recommendation to maintain a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated recovery and growth in demand for fiberglass and E-fabric products [1][6]

Core Insights - Several trends in the energy markets are expected to shape the global oil, gas, and energy equities markets into 2026, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2] Supply-Demand Dynamics - The oil market is currently experiencing an oversupply, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a supply exceeding demand by up to 3.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 [3] - Analysts predict that the oil glut will be short-lived, with expectations of market balancing later in 2026 and into 2027 [4] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that lower oil prices may be necessary to rebalance the market after 2026, barring significant supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts [5] Supply Waves - Supply waves are expected to be the main driver of oil and natural gas prices in the coming years, with a notable surge in LNG exports projected to exceed 50% from 2025 to 2030 [4][5] - Rystad Energy forecasts a year of upstream energy abundance in 2026, although potential downstream bottlenecks may arise [6] Refining Margins - High refinery utilization rates and elevated product crack spreads are anticipated, particularly with very high diesel crack spreads in Europe and the U.S. expected to persist through most of 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Oil prices stabilized after a significant drop, with Brent at approximately $63.08 and WTI at around $58.80, as traders reassessed OPEC's market outlook for 2026 [1][3] - The U.S. funding deal resolution alleviated some macroeconomic concerns, but crude oil remained influenced by supply signals rather than broader market sentiment [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC's updated projections indicate a shift from a deficit outlook to a neutral supply-demand balance for the upcoming year, influenced by rising non-OPEC output and moderate consumption growth [3][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has outlined a softer demand trajectory, contributing to market concerns about potential surplus risks [3] Market Reactions - Diesel margins strengthened, while crude futures showed a slower recovery, with Murban trading at approximately $65.43 due to steady Asian demand [4] - A softer dollar and lower Treasury yields provided some support to commodities, but did not alter the outlook for crude supplies [6] Current Market Conditions - Traders are maintaining small positions following the recent selloff, awaiting guidance on OPEC+ output levels and demand expectations for early 2026 [6]