Liquidity & Market Dynamics - Government shutdown starting October 1st initiates a Treasury General Account (TGA) build of $150 billion to $965 billion, draining cash from the market [1] - Reverse Repo Program (RRP) builds by $20 billion this week, causing bank reserves to fall to "ample" lows, leading to tight funding markets [1] - Tight funding markets are indicated by increased Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) spreads and record $10 billion usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [1] - Bitcoin's choppy range is hypersensitive to liquidity, preventing a breakout [1] - Post-month end, RRP decreases will return liquidity, and a TGA drawdown in mid-November will flood the market with cash [1] - Quantitative Tightening (QT) ends December 1st, leading to Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion [2] Crypto Market Impact - A liquidity tailwind is expected after the end of QT [2] - Bitcoin is expected to pump upwards due to increased liquidity [2] - The broader crypto market is also expected to pump upwards [2]