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光大证券2026年度策略展望:牛市第三年 时间重于空间
智通财经网· 2025-11-23 00:58
Core Viewpoint - The current market position is expected to be the starting point of a long-term bull market, supported by gradual improvement in fundamentals and industry highlights, with the inflow of resident funds and policy support from the "14th Five-Year Plan" determining the market's slope and rhythm [1][5]. Long-term Bull Market Foundation - The current bull market is anticipated to be promising in both time and space, requiring not only improved liquidity but also a strong correlation between market performance and fundamentals over time. The expectation of policy improvements serves as a turning point, while funds will dictate the slope and rhythm of the market [2]. Profit Stability and Structural Highlights - By 2026, price changes may become the main driver of profits. After significant policy-driven boosts, the domestic economy is expected to stabilize, making price factors more influential on profits. A-share profits are projected to gradually recover, with non-financial A-share growth expected to reach around 10% [3]. Focus on Resident Funds and "14th Five-Year Plan" Recommendations - Medium-risk preference funds are likely to be the main incremental source in the next phase. Residents are the most important source of funds in the A-share market, with current inflows resembling those of 2015. While high-risk preference funds have entered the market quickly, medium-risk preference funds, such as public funds and ETFs, are expected to be significant in the future. The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides a crucial policy foundation for economic and industrial development, with the first year of the plan typically showing good market performance [4]. Industry Main Lines and Potential Switches - In 2026, the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors are likely to remain the main lines of the bull market. Based on fundamental, financial, and valuation dimensions, these sectors are currently in the second phase of the bull market and may still have considerable upside. There may be potential sector switches towards cyclical and financial sectors, influenced by market sentiment and economic expectations [6].