But the president has made some comments to reporters on Air Force One moments ago. Aean Jabers is tracking that for us. What'd he say, Aean.Scott, that's right. The president is on Air Force One. He's on his way back from Florida talking to reporters about Fed Chair Jay Pal, who he called a Uh, and said that he has two or three other candidates in mind to replace Pal's Fed chair, but did not go so far as to say when he envisions naming that person.So, the White House has been hinting now for several days t ...

on the July deadline that's coming up for the trade deals. Uh is that deadline still hard and fast for the president or is he now considering even coming to trade deals after that deadline and where is he on the going forward. The president has been asked this quite a few times by many of you in the media.I've heard him answer it at press conferences. He just spoke about it on Air Force One. Uh the deadline is not critical.The president can simply uh provide these countries with a deal if they refuse to mak ...

Some breaking news out of the White House. Megan Cassella with the details out of the press briefing. Uh, Megan.Hey, Kelly. That's right. White House press secretary Caroline Levit is talking with reporters right now.And she just offered us the latest indication that that July 9th deadline for the so-called reciprocal tariffs on countries specific tariff rates that it might not be as firm as it once as we once thought. Here's what she said. The deadline is not critical.the president can simply uh provide th ...

Global Views: The Dog That Didn't Bark 1. Our projection for the 2025 increase in the effective US tariff rate has stabilized at around 14pp over the past two months, dramatically higher than the 2pp increase in the first Trump administration but significantly below the 20pp we assumed for two hours on April 9. Stabilization in the tariff outlook has helped financial conditions ease and pushed statistical measures of policy uncertainty down from the highs. It has also led us to shave our December 2025 core ...

Market Expectations & Trade Relations - Market expectations regarding US-China trade talks are realistic, with no anticipation of a grand deal [1][2] - A minor agreement on rare earth exports in exchange for tech exports may disappoint the market [2] - US effective tariff rate on all trade partners reached over 7% in April, a multiple of the rate in the past 25 years [3] - Tariff rate on China was up in the high 30% in April, subsequently decreasing but remaining at extreme levels [3] - Without a positive surprise in trade talks, the market may drift lower as profit-taking begins [4] Equity Market Performance - No fresh record highs are expected for US or global stocks [5] - US stocks have underperformed global stocks by approximately 7 trillion over the past four months [5] - US stocks experienced a sharp decline from early February to mid-March, subsequently keeping pace with global stocks [6] - A new positive catalyst is needed for US stocks to reach fresh record highs [7] Currency Market Outlook - The possibility of Euro/Dollar reaching 140 is being discussed [7] - The US dollar is expected to structurally decline significantly in the coming years, though not in a straight line [9] - An overshoot to 140 on Euro/Dollar is feasible but not expected this year [9]