Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of renewed S&P 500 volatility due to tariff talks and a government shutdown, leading investors to rely on secondary economic indicators for insights into the U.S. economy [1] NFIB Small Business Survey - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, marking the first decline in three months and coming in below the forecast of 100.6 [2] - Uncertainty among small business owners surged, reaching the fourth-highest level in over 51 years, despite the index remaining above its historical average for five consecutive months [2][3] - Labor quality and taxes are the top concerns for small business owners, with significant issues arising from supply chain disruptions and inflation [3] - The net percentage of owners reporting higher profits increased to its highest level in nearly four years, highlighting the sector's influence on the overall economy [3] Regional Manufacturing: Philadelphia & New York - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 36 points to -12.8, the lowest since April and below the forecast of 8.6, indicating a sharp slowdown in regional activity [4] - Conversely, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for New York increased by 19.4 points to 10.7, exceeding the forecast of -1.8, suggesting a rebound in manufacturing activity [4] - Both regions reported elevated price pressures and stronger future optimism, with firms expressing greater confidence in the next six months [4][5] NAHB Housing Market Index - Builder confidence improved, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising five points to 37, the highest since April and above the expected reading of 33 [6] - All three components of the index—current sales, expected sales, and prospective buyer traffic—experienced their largest monthly increases since early 2024 [7] Zillow Home Value Index - U.S. home values rose for the first time in seven months in September, with the Zillow Home Value Index increasing to $363,932, a nominal rise of 0.1% from August [8] - However, inflation-adjusted home values fell for the seventeenth consecutive month, declining 0.3% from August and down 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a challenging housing market [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 posted a 1.7% increase last week, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) also rising by 1.7% [10] - The 10-year note yield fell below 4.00% for the first time in over a year, while the 2-year note reached its lowest level since September 2022 [11] Economic Data in the Week Ahead - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a sparse economic calendar, making the available reports more significant [12] - Upcoming releases include Existing Home Sales figures, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which will provide insights into consumer sentiment and economic growth [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" investment rating to the Internet industry in North America [2]. Core Insights - Internet stocks experienced a decline of 1% last week, with notable movements in major companies such as META and AMZN, both down by 2%, while GOOGL saw a slight increase of 1% [2][10]. - The delay of Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU, originally set for June 1 and now postponed to July 9, impacted market performance negatively in the latter part of the week [2]. - The report highlights significant price movements for specific companies, with RDDT down 11%, ABNB down 8%, and U down 9% [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market performance for Internet names was a decline of 1%, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices falling by 3% and 2% respectively [10]. - The market-cap weighted average for digital ads showed a slight decline of 0.3%, while e-commerce saw a decrease of 2.1% [5]. Company Valuations - Valuations for major companies are as follows: AMZN at 28X, GOOGL at 17X, and META at 23X for 2026 EPS, reflecting changes of -9%, -11%, and +4% compared to the trailing twelve months average [2]. - The report provides a comprehensive comparison of various companies' market caps, EV, and multiples, indicating a range of valuations across the sector [4]. Price Movements - The report details the price movements of key players, with AMZN and GOOGL showing short interest percentages of 0.7% and 1.2% respectively, while META had a short interest of 1.4% [7]. - The one-week price performance for selected companies indicates a mixed trend, with some companies like PTON showing a significant increase of 19.4% while others like RDDT faced a decline of 11% [5][7].

Core Insights - The earnings season is currently very active, with decent overall performance, but recent tariff discussions have led to downward revisions in earnings expectations for Q2 and future periods [1] - Disney is set to report earnings this week, with a focus on its streaming performance in light of Netflix's recent strong results [2] Company Performance - Netflix has shown impressive results, with a 90% stock increase over the past year and reaffirmation of FY25 guidance, which has positively impacted investor sentiment [3] - Netflix has maintained subscriber growth, reporting only one quarter of negative growth in the last 12 quarters, and the introduction of ad-supported tiers has been successful despite initial consumer resistance [4] - A crackdown on password sharing has also proven beneficial for Netflix, allowing the company to capture revenue from previously unmonetized viewers [5] Disney Outlook - Analysts have a bearish outlook for Disney's upcoming quarter, with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate at $1.18, reflecting a 3% decline since February and a projected 3% year-over-year pullback, while sales are expected to grow by 5% to $23.1 billion [6][8] - Disney's subscriber growth is slower compared to Netflix, with 174 million total subscriptions and 120 million paid Disney+ Core subscribers, marking an increase of 4.4 million from the previous quarter [10] - The overall sentiment for Disney remains negative, with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) indicating widespread negative revisions [11][13]