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Will the Stock Market Crash in Year 2 of Donald Trump's Second Term? Several Historically Correlated Events Offer a Clear Answer.
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-14 11:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a stock market correction during the second year of Donald Trump's presidency, supported by historical data and correlations, particularly focusing on the Shiller P/E Ratio and midterm election impacts. Group 1: Shiller P/E Ratio Insights - The Shiller P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio, has averaged 17.34 over the last 155 years but was at 40.35 as of February 11, indicating the second-highest stock market valuation in history, only behind the dot-com era [1][2] - Historical data suggests that Shiller P/E Ratios above 30 typically signal trouble for stocks, with previous instances leading to declines of 20% or more in major indices [7] Group 2: Market Performance Under Trump - Since Trump's second term began on January 20, 2025, major indices have seen significant gains: Dow up 15%, S&P 500 up 16%, and Nasdaq up 18% as of February 11 [5] - During Trump's first term, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively, showcasing a strong market performance [6] Group 3: Historical Correlations and Market Corrections - Historically, midterm election years have led to larger stock market corrections, with an average peak-to-trough downturn of 17.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950 [13] - The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% during the midterm elections of Trump's first term, indicating a pattern that could repeat [13] Group 4: Technology and Market Bubbles - The article highlights that every major technological innovation over the past three decades has experienced a bubble-bursting event, suggesting that current investments in AI may face similar risks [8][10] - While companies are heavily investing in AI infrastructure, there are concerns about the optimization of these technologies to enhance corporate profitability [10] Group 5: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term corrections, historical data shows that bear markets are typically short-lived, averaging 286 calendar days, while bull markets last significantly longer, averaging 1,011 calendar days [21] - The article emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective for investors, as corrections and crashes tend to be temporary [18][21]
Warner Bros Discovery sees activist Sachem Head increase stake in Q4
Reuters· 2026-02-13 23:12
Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery has attracted the attention of activist investor Sachem Head Capital Management, which has significantly increased its stake in the company amid ongoing acquisition interest from Paramount Skydance [1] Group 1: Investment Activity - Sachem Head Capital Management doubled its holding in Warner Bros. Discovery to nearly 8 million shares by the end of Q4, making it one of the top 10 investments in U.S. stocks for the hedge fund [1] - Warner Bros. Discovery has a market value of approximately $70 billion, indicating its significant position in the media and entertainment sector [1] Group 2: Acquisition Interest - Paramount Skydance has made a hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, which was rejected last month, and is now increasing pressure to engage in discussions regarding a potentially more attractive offer than Netflix's [1] - Paramount has hinted at the possibility of attempting to unseat Warner Bros. Discovery's directors, suggesting that the head of Pentwater Capital Management could be a viable candidate for the board [1] Group 3: Other Investments by Sachem Head - In addition to Warner Bros. Discovery, Sachem Head has made new investments in telecommunications company EchoStar, acquiring 5.2 million shares, as well as in online used car retailer Carvana and entertainment company Live Nation Entertainment [1]
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes In Cooler Than Expected | Real Yield 2/13/2026
Youtube· 2026-02-13 23:07
Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows strength with tame consumer inflation and stronger-than-expected job growth, leading traders to adjust their expectations for rate cuts, resulting in lower two-year yields [1][3][4] - The labor market's strength is questioned, with suggestions that job growth numbers may be overstated by approximately 60,000 per month, indicating caution regarding future rate cuts [3][12] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Recent inflation data is viewed as encouraging, with both headline and core inflation moderating, although core services continue to exert upward pressure on inflation [8][9] - Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Stephen Myron, advocate for lower interest rates, citing supply-driven changes in the economy that could support growth [5][6] - The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a third rate cut by December, but some analysts believe this is an overreaction to recent data [11][12] Bond Market Dynamics - The two-year yield has reached its lowest level since September 2022, reflecting the market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy [4][8] - A significant rally in the two-year note has been observed, although it remains within a tight range [4][8] - The dollar has been declining, with investors diversifying into other markets, particularly emerging markets, as the Fed eases and global economic growth continues [17][18] Corporate Debt Issuance - A surge in reverse Yankee bond sales has been noted, with U.S. companies like Alphabet and Goldman Sachs raising funds in non-dollar markets, indicating a trend towards diversifying funding sources [72][76] - The scale of recent bond sales includes Alphabet's £5.5 billion deal and Goldman Sachs' €7 billion financial bond, both experiencing strong demand [73][74] - Companies are seeking to diversify their funding to avoid pushing up borrowing costs in their home markets [76] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by a mix of strong issuance and cautious investor sentiment, with credit spreads beginning to widen slightly [91][92] - Analysts suggest that while issuance may continue, there is a growing dispersion in performance among different sectors, particularly in tech and financials [93][94] - The structural increase in supply from tech companies is expected to impact spreads, with a potential regime change in how tech bonds are perceived by investors [96][115]
WORLD PREMIERE OF UNIVERSAL THEME PARKS: THE EXHIBITION OPENS AT THE FRANKLIN INSTITUTE ON FEBRUARY 14
Prnewswire· 2026-02-13 14:59
WORLD PREMIERE OF UNIVERSAL THEME PARKS: THE EXHIBITION OPENS AT THE FRANKLIN INSTITUTE ON FEBRUARY 14 [Accessibility Statement] Skip NavigationGROUNDBREAKING NEW EXHIBITION GOES INSIDE THE IMMERSIVE WORLD OF THEME PARKS, SHOWCASING SOME OF UNIVERSAL'S MOST ICONIC ATTRACTIONS, INCLUDINGThe Wizarding World of Harry Potterâ"¢, Jaws, Illumination's Minions, The Secret Life of Pets and Sing, Jurassic World, DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon, Universal Monsters and SUPER NINTENDO WORLDâ"¢PHILADELPH ...
11 Most Promising Low-Cost Stocks to Buy Now
Insider Monkey· 2026-02-13 13:54
On February 7, Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, joined ‘The Exchange’ on CNBC to discuss the state of equity markets, assessing which stocks are growing fast and trading cheaply. Bernstein particularly highlighted a significant and healthy broadening of the market that has been occurring since late October 2025.He attributed this shift to the unexpected strength of the overall economy and noted that nominal GDP reached over 8% last quarter. Bernstein emphasized that, excluding the immed ...
金元证券每日晨报-20260213
Jinyuan Securities· 2026-02-13 02:51
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,134.02, up 0.05%, with a trading volume of 897.96 billion yuan [5] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.86% to 14,283.00, with a trading volume of 1,243.78 billion yuan [5] - The ChiNext Index increased by 1.32% to 3,328.06, with a trading volume of 618.13 billion yuan [5] - Overall, more than 3,200 stocks declined across the market, with total trading volume reaching 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 157.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [10] International News - U.S. President Trump emphasized the necessity for a deal with Iran, warning of severe consequences if negotiations fail [9] - A proposal for a broad economic partnership between Russia and the U.S. has been introduced, focusing on natural gas and key raw materials [9] - The U.S. and Japan are finalizing a $550 billion investment fund, with initial projects covering data center energy and semiconductors [9] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity [12] - The Ministry of Education is reforming vocational education, focusing on new fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [14] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has established an "AI+" industry community to enhance data space construction across 11 key sectors [14] Important Announcements - Companies such as Qichuang Data and Penghui Energy are planning significant investments, with Qichuang Data expected to procure servers worth up to 11 billion yuan and Penghui Energy planning a 3.3 billion yuan battery project [14]
Playboy Engages MZ Group to Lead Strategic Investor Relations and Shareholder Communications Program
Globenewswire· 2026-02-12 13:31
Core Viewpoint - Playboy, Inc. has engaged MZ Group to enhance its investor relations and financial communications strategy, aiming to increase visibility in the investment community and leverage its 72 years of cultural heritage to build a diversified, high-margin business model focused on licensing, media, and hospitality [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - MZ Group will collaborate with Playboy management to implement a comprehensive capital markets strategy that emphasizes the company's iconic brand and its asset-light business model [2]. - Recent initiatives include selling 50% of its China licensing business, relaunching its magazine, and planning a Miami Beach membership club, all aimed at accelerating growth and revenue [2][4]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Playboy aims to address the content needs of men aged 18 to 44, who are currently underserved by existing media, by providing credible and nuanced discussions around relationships and intimacy [4]. - The company is focusing on high-quality content that resonates with modern audiences, leveraging its brand to reclaim traditional media and expand into digital platforms [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Playboy has rebuilt its financial foundation, including a strong balance sheet, and is now focusing on three high-potential verticals to drive growth [4]. - The company plans to integrate physical and digital experiences to convert audience engagement into recurring revenue, alongside opportunities in original TV programming and film [4][5].
Angel Announces Timing of Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Results
Prnewswire· 2026-02-12 13:30
Angel Announces Timing of Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Results [Accessibility Statement] Skip Navigation~ Earnings to be Released, After Market Close on Thursday, March 12th ~~ Management will Host Webinar to Discuss Results on Friday, March 13th at 11am ET ~PROVO, Utah, Feb. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Angel (NYSE: ANGX) (the "Company"), a media and technology company guided by two million grassroots Angel Guild members championing values-driven stories, today announced that it will release fina ...
收评:创业板指高开高走涨超1% 算力产业链集体走强
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-02-12 07:42
Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains on February 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05% to 4134.02 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86% to 14283.00 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.32% to 3328.06 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 157.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The computing power industry chain showed strong performance, with companies like Yuke Technology and Capital Online hitting the daily limit of 20% [1] - The CPO concept surged, with Tianfu Communication and Robot Technology reaching historical highs [1] - The electric grid equipment sector also performed well, with companies such as Siyuan Electric and Sifang Co. achieving new highs, while Wangbian Electric and Shun Sodium Co. hit the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued its upward trend, with companies like Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten hitting the daily limit [1] - In contrast, the film and television sector saw declines, with Hengdian Film and Television, Jinyi Film and Television, and Bona Film Group all hitting the daily limit down [1][2] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the spring market rally has historical patterns and strong driving logic, suggesting that small-cap stocks will continue to perform well [3] - Huatai Securities noted that the recent procurement of 7GWh energy storage cell equipment by State Power Investment Corporation indicates strong downstream demand, with price recovery expected in energy storage capacity [3] - CITIC Securities projected that the animation industry will see accelerated growth by the end of 2025, driven by high-quality content supply and expanding commercialization opportunities [4] Policy Developments - The Chinese government is accelerating the construction of a modern capital metropolitan area, with multiple initiatives to support its implementation, including enhancing collaboration among Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei [5] Automotive Industry - The China Passenger Car Association reported that in January, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 286,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.6%, accounting for 49.6% of total passenger car exports [6] - The average payment term for suppliers among major automotive companies has been reduced to 54 days, down approximately 10 days from the previous year, with most companies committing to a maximum of 60 days [7]
A股三大股指收涨:电力设备领涨,算力硬件产业链反弹
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-12 07:37
A股三大股指2月12日集体高开。早盘短暂回踩后震荡上行,创指更是涨超1%。午后呈现窄幅震荡走 势,三大股指收涨。 从盘面上看,算力硬件产业链反弹,CPO、存储器方向领涨;云计算、特高压、稀土永磁、半导体、小 金属板块活跃。影视、短剧游戏题材继续调整,零售、食品、白酒等消费股表现不佳。 机械设备涨幅靠前,鑫磊股份(301317)、申菱环境(301018)、天宜新材(688033)、川润股份 (002272)等涨停或者涨超10%,朗进科技(300594)、博盈特焊(301468)等涨超7%。 传媒股领跌两市,荣信文化(301231)、读客文化(301025)、光线传媒(300251)、龙韵股份 (603729)、横店影视(603103)、博纳影业(001330)等跌停或跌超10%。 至收盘,上证综指涨0.05%,报4134.02点;科创50指数涨1.78%,报1480.99点;深证成指涨0.86%,报 14283点;创业板指涨1.32%,报3328.06点。 Wind统计显示,两市及北交所共2107只股票上涨,3273只股票下跌,平盘有96只股票。 沪深两市成交总额21418亿元,较前一交易日的19842亿元增加 ...