June 9, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America M Idea The Weekly Worldview: Economics and Markets How our views on the impact of tariffs on the US and the Fed's path matter for our strategists' views on rates. M In last week's Weekly Worldview, we summarized our key convictions from the Economics mid-year outlook; this week we think through how the economic views translated into asset allocation. In general, our strategists' views align closely to ours and, in particular, the timing of t ...

The market is rife with fear about tariffs and their potential impact on the broader economy. This caused many stocks to sell off. Now, though, I think it's time to take action on a few companies that are best in class and have great long-term outlooks.Meta Platforms (META 0.96%) and The Trade Desk (TTD 0.55%) are the two that top this list. These two are at the top of the pile in advertising, but advertising usually doesn't fare well during economic downturns. So, if you've got $2,000 sitting around, why a ...

Investment Rating - The report expects US GDP growth to slow from 2.5% last year to just 0.5% this year on a Q4/Q4 basis [2][5]. Core Insights - The slowdown is largely attributed to higher tariffs, tighter financial conditions, and increased policy uncertainty [2][5]. - Initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and ISM services indices are identified as timely indicators of slower growth [2][12]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to decline as disposable income is affected by rising consumer prices due to tariffs [29][37]. - Capital expenditure (capex) growth is expected to be depressed, with a peak drag anticipated in the second half of 2025 [42][44]. - The labor market is showing initial signs of weakness, with jobless claims being a key indicator [49][54]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - US GDP growth is projected to decrease significantly, reflecting the impact of tariffs and financial conditions [2][5]. - Historical data suggests that hard economic indicators typically show signs of weakness about four months after a growth slowdown begins [20][62]. Consumer Spending - Higher tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices, leading to a slowdown in consumer spending as disposable income declines [29][37]. - Core retail sales are highlighted as a reliable indicator of consumer spending during growth slowdowns [37][38]. Capital Expenditure - Tighter financial conditions and policy uncertainty are likely to negatively impact capex growth, with a significant drag expected in 2025 [42][44]. - Historical analysis indicates that soft data on capex tends to deteriorate before hard data, which may take longer to reflect the slowdown [46][48]. Labor Market - Initial jobless claims are considered a timely indicator of economic slowdown, with expectations of increased claims as the economic outlook worsens [49][54]. - The report notes that while layoffs remain low, hiring in sectors like healthcare and education may slow down significantly [41][54].