Core Viewpoint - The current economic landscape under Trump's presidency is marked by volatility and mixed performance in the stock market, with significant gains in the tech sector driven by AI, but overall performance lagging compared to global markets [2][8][12]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Stock Market Trends - The S&P 500's first-year gain under Trump is only the ninth best since World War II, with previous presidents achieving larger gains [3]. - Excluding the US, global equities have risen approximately 30% since Trump's inauguration, which is about double the S&P 500's gain [4]. - The US stock market has experienced a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, although it fell 1.4% recently due to geopolitical tensions and market reactions [11]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Volatility - Trump's presidency has introduced significant volatility, with the 100 largest S&P 500 companies experiencing 47 sharp drops of five standard deviations or more in 2025, the highest since 1998 [14]. - Investors are bracing for more volatility as Trump targets various economic segments, including mortgage and credit card rates, amid rising inflation and interest rates [16]. - Historical trends indicate that midterm election years are typically weaker for the stock market due to uncertainty surrounding potential changes in presidential agendas [15][18]. Group 3: Global Market Comparisons - Stock markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America have outperformed the US, with MSCI's emerging-market index rising over 30% last year, marking its largest advance since 2017 [9][10]. - The perception that global equities will continue to outpace US markets is becoming mainstream, as performance drives investment decisions [10]. Group 4: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Trump's administration has exerted unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [17]. - The administration's actions, including a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have contributed to investor anxiety regarding monetary policy stability [17].