Workflow
Terminal demand impact
icon
Search documents
Counterpoint:成本上升影响终端需求 预计2026年全球智能手机出货量下跌2.1%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 01:32
Core Insights - Counterpoint Research predicts a potential 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026 due to rising component costs impacting end demand [1][4] - The forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 2.6 percentage points, with significant adjustments for Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO, and vivo [4] Group 1: Market Trends - The low-end market (below $200) is expected to be significantly affected, with Bill of Materials (BoM) costs rising by 20%-30% since the beginning of the year [7] - Mid to high-end market segments are experiencing a cost increase of approximately 10%-15% [7] - Average smartphone selling prices are projected to increase by 6.9% in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 3.9% [7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Brands with scale advantages, comprehensive product lines (especially in high-end models), and vertical integration capabilities are expected to be more resilient to supply chain changes [8] - Market competition is anticipated to become more differentiated, with some brands facing challenges in balancing market share and profitability [8] - OEMs are adopting diverse strategies, including adjusting specifications of certain models and guiding consumers towards higher-spec versions to cope with cost and market changes [8]