Geopolitical Strategy & Risks - The analysis suggests that a potential agreement where Ukraine cedes territory to Russia is unacceptable to Ukraine [1][2] - Concerns exist that direct talks between the US and Russia, without Ukrainian or allied participation, could undermine the peace process and disadvantage Ukraine [2][19] - The lack of adherence to timelines and unfulfilled threats by the US could be perceived as weakness by Russia [3][6] - A summit between the US and Russian presidents is seen as a diplomatic win for Putin, potentially without reciprocal gains for the US, Ukraine, or European allies [4][7][9] - There is apprehension that Putin, in a one-on-one meeting, might distort history and influence President Trump to make concessions detrimental to Ukraine's negotiating position [12][13] - The report disputes claims that Russia's primary goal is solely to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, asserting that territorial annexation remains a key objective [14][16] Potential Outcomes & Concerns - Hopes are expressed for a ceasefire, particularly an air ceasefire, to protect Ukrainian civilians [17][18] - Concerns exist that President Trump might align with Putin's views, creating discord between the US, Ukraine, and European allies [19]