Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Global Tobacco** industry, specifically focusing on **vapour exports from China** as of July 2025. The data is sourced from China Customs and highlights trends in vapour product exports, which are primarily manufactured in China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth Projections for Vapour Sales**: The UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour retail sales growth of approximately **20%** in 2024, reaching **$46 billion**, with equivalised volumes expected to grow by about **25%**, accounting for around **8%** of total nicotine sales [1][2][3]. 2. **Decline in Global Vapour Exports**: Global vapour exports fell by **15.2%** in July 2025 compared to **11.7%** in June 2025, indicating a deceleration in exports, particularly to the US and Asia, although there was some offset from the UK [2][4]. 3. **US Market Trends**: In the US, which represents about **40%** of global vapour retail sales, export volumes decreased by **19.7%** in July 2025, with a notable decline of **13.7%** in that month alone. This reflects a significant sequential improvement compared to previous months, suggesting manufacturers may be adapting to increased customs inspections [3][4]. 4. **European Market Performance**: Exports from Europe (excluding the UK) declined by **12.9%** in July 2025, while the UK saw a growth of **3.8%** in the same period, potentially due to inventory build-up [4][5]. 5. **Asian Market Challenges**: Vapour exports from Asia experienced a sharp decline of **30.3%** in July 2025, attributed to slower adoption rates and a shift in production to local markets [5][6]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Illicit Market Impact**: Illicit disposable vapes account for nearly **20%** of US nicotine volumes, and a reduction in this segment could benefit tobacco companies, especially given the rapid growth of disposable vapes in recent years [3][4]. 2. **Export Volume Trends**: The report indicates that vapour export volumes are being affected by various factors, including shifts in consumer preferences, regulatory changes, and competitive dynamics within the tobacco industry [2][3][4]. 3. **Valuation and Risk Considerations**: The report outlines risks to price targets, including changes in consumer preferences, government regulations, macroeconomic trends, and competitive intensity among tobacco companies [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global tobacco industry, particularly in the vapour segment.