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Welcome back to the good watch channel everyone. My name is Josh and right now Bitcoin is starting to retest a crucial area of support in the short term but still playing out the bullish divergence while the US stock market is continuing to pump into all-time record highs ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting happening in just a couple of hours from now which I'll talk about in just a moment. Something that we need to pay attention to.While Ethereum has just now confirmed a break below this crucial area on the ...

Core Insights - Gold and silver futures prices have experienced significant losses, with gold down over $250 an ounce and silver down over $3.50 an ounce, raising concerns about market volatility and potential dislocations in other commodity futures markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The extreme daily price volatility in gold and silver has led to a situation where both bullish and bearish traders may be forced out of the market within the same trading session due to major price swings [5]. - The marketplace is closely monitoring the gold and silver markets, as continued volatility could lead to selling pressure in other commodity futures [2]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Micro gold futures, which represent one-tenth the size of standard contracts, are recommended for traders looking to enter the market with lower capital commitment, offering lower margin requirements and reduced financial impact from price movements [7]. - Trading options on gold and silver futures allows traders to manage risk effectively, although high implied volatility results in higher premiums for options [8]. - A suggested strategy for traders is to buy well-out-of-the-money options, which are cheaper and can still yield profits due to significant daily price movements [9].

Core Insights - Amphenol is set to announce its earnings on October 22, 2025, with strong financials indicating a market capitalization of $153 billion and $19 billion in revenue for the previous year [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported an operating profit of $4.3 billion and a net income of $3.2 billion in the last fiscal year [3] - Analysts project earnings of $0.80 per share and sales of $5.56 billion for the upcoming quarter, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year's $0.50 per share and $4.04 billion in sales [3] Historical Trading Bias - Over the past five years, Amphenol's stock has shown a positive one-day return 65% of the time following earnings releases, with a median gain of 2.3% and a peak return of 8.2% [4][9] - The percentage of positive one-day returns increases to 67% when considering the last three years [9] Trading Strategy - Event-driven traders may find the historical trend beneficial, although actual performance relative to consensus will be crucial [5] - Two primary trading strategies are identified: a proactive strategy leveraging historical probabilities before earnings announcements and a reactive strategy analyzing immediate post-earnings moves for longer-term positions [6]

Sell low, buy higher, sell even higher ...

Core Insights - Lockheed Martin is expected to report quarterly revenues of approximately $18.6 billion, driven by consistent defense spending and effective backlog management in its Aeronautics and Missiles & Fire Control divisions [2] - Earnings may face slight margin pressure due to supply chain costs and program timing, despite efficiency improvements and increased F-35 production rates [2] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $118 billion, with total revenue of $72 billion over the past twelve months, and a net profit of $4.2 billion [3] Financial Performance - Lockheed Martin's operating income for the past year was $5.9 billion, indicating operational profitability [3] - Historical earnings data shows that there have been 20 documented earnings data points over the last five years, with 40% of one-day post-earnings returns being positive [5] - The median of positive one-day returns is 2.1%, while the median of negative returns is -3.5% [5] Investment Strategies - Two approaches are suggested for traders: prepare before the earnings announcement or adjust positions based on immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [4] - A lower-risk strategy involves analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns to inform trading decisions [6] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, achieving returns exceeding 105% since its inception, providing an alternative for investors seeking less volatility [4][7]

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has experienced a significant year-to-date stock increase of 262.28% as of the start of 2025, driven by its expansion into credit cards, crypto trading, and prediction markets [1] - Despite the impressive gains, there are early signs of caution for shorter-term investors as the stock has recently moved below short-term support levels [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that Robinhood's expansion into various financial instruments has contributed to its stock performance, indicating a diversification strategy that may appeal to investors [1] - The mention of other stocks and investment strategies suggests a competitive landscape where Robinhood is positioned among notable players like Nvidia and Palantir [4]

Portfolio Performance - Initial capital was $90 thousand, with the current value at approximately $34 million [2] - Experienced a maximum drawdown of 52%, from $65 million to $32 million [2] Market Analysis & Strategy - The four-year cycles appear to be nearing a top, potentially leading to multi-cycle participants selling their holdings [3][4] - A new buyer is needed to sustain the four-year cycle, but the support at current price ranges is unclear, especially with mNAVs losing premiums [4] - The longer-term macro backdrop remains bullish due to the cutting cycle and Gold catch-up trade, although the timeframe may be extended due to significant open interest (OI) wipeout [5] - A deleveraging event of similar magnitude was observed on April 14th, 2024, just before the halving [6] - The firm is shifting trading style from swing to chop, reducing leverage to less than 2x portfolio, and targeting extremities with tight stop losses (SLs) and take profits (TPs) [7] HYPE Long Position - The firm still favors the HYPE story and its current valuation, despite challenges from a 50% drop in OI and increased competition from other perpetual DEXs [7][8] - The firm paid $620 thousand in funding fees and experienced 7-figure losses on HYPE longs [11] - The firm does not see a hard reason to close HYPE longs yet, but will be decreasing the size of the long position [11] Potential Catalysts - More institutions recognizing the HYPE story [9] - Launch of killer-app from the HYPE community [9] - Team token unlock surprise [9] - S2 points season [10]

Product Features - Bitget introduces Scaled Orders to enhance trading strategies [1] - Scaled Orders split large orders into smaller ones across a price range [1] - The feature aims to minimize market impact during trading [1] - Scaled Orders help optimize costs in volatile crypto markets [1] - Scaled Orders help seize opportunities in volatile crypto markets [1] Target Audience - The product targets traders looking to optimize costs and manage risk in crypto markets [1]

The market has changed in the last couple yearsBack in the day hyper active trade management was a good way to gain an edgeNow it feels like the opposite is true and conviction is much more important as the market chops highly active traders to death ...