Um, meantime, let's dig deeper into Chair F Powell's future at the Fed and the path of interest rates this year. Joining us now is Alan Blinder. He is a former vice chairman at the Federal Reserve, professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton.Uh, professor, thank you so much for joining us. We do appreciate your time. What did you make of the tone of the Fed today.Did you think they were hawkish. That's how the markets are reading this all. >> Yeah, I think the markets are reading it a little bit ...

Group 1 - The focus is on upcoming inflation data and its potential impact on equity markets and Fed fund expectations [1][2] - A hotter than expected inflation print would necessitate a higher discount rate, negatively affecting earnings and equities, while a downside surprise would have the opposite effect [2][3] - The current terminal rate is priced at 3%, aligning with the Fed's neutral stance, but a more dovish outlook could indicate recession territory, which is unfavorable for stocks [3][4] Group 2 - The market assumes the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, suggesting that a hot inflation print may only cause minor fluctuations in equity markets [4][6] - There is skepticism regarding the transitory nature of inflation, especially if driven by tariffs, which could lead to higher oil prices and breakevens [6][7] - Higher yields are expected as inflation data comes in hotter, but immediate changes are not anticipated until there are signs of persistent inflation [7][8] Group 3 - Elevated valuations do not predict equity returns but can increase investor nervousness, leading to more severe sell-offs during downturns [8][9] - Vigilance is advised in the current market environment due to potential negative catalysts, rather than outright selling [9]