Transport Resilience
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理解交通弹性:评估方法和工具(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2026-01-20 02:50
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transport resilience sector, but emphasizes the critical need for investment prioritization and resource allocation to enhance road network resilience against climate hazards [17][18]. Core Insights - Road networks are essential for economic growth and social well-being, but they face increasing risks from aging infrastructure and climate change, necessitating adaptation investments projected to exceed hundreds of billions annually by 2030 [17][18]. - Effective transport resilience analysis has evolved into practical, scalable approaches that can be applied even in data-limited contexts, focusing on multidimensional risks at asset, system, and user levels [18][19]. - The report identifies two key analytical tools: the Global Resilience Index (GRI) for rapid vulnerability assessments and the Hazard & Risk Multi-Regional Assessment (HARMA) for in-depth economic analysis of climate impacts on transport networks [21][22]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report highlights the increasing vulnerability of road networks to climate hazards and the urgent need for strategic investment in resilience measures [17][18]. - It outlines a common sequence of analytical steps for transport resilience assessments, emphasizing the importance of integrating economic analysis into prioritization efforts [19][20]. Resilience Assessment Methodology and Tools - The methodology for resilience assessments includes defining the scope, identifying climate hazards, and employing a five-step analytical framework: mapping exposure, assessing vulnerability, analyzing system criticality, identifying resilience measures, and conducting economic analysis [40][41][49][55]. - The GRI and HARMA models are presented as effective tools for conducting resilience assessments, with GRI focusing on rapid screening and HARMA providing detailed economic evaluations [56][58]. Case Studies - The report includes case studies from the Kyrgyz Republic, Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil, and Malawi, showcasing practical applications of resilience analysis tools and their impact on investment prioritization and infrastructure planning [64][66][68]. - In the Kyrgyz Republic, a GRI application identified high-risk corridors for intervention, while Nigeria's assessment estimated significant repair costs from flooding, highlighting the need for targeted resilience investments [65][82]. - Pakistan's HARMA application demonstrated the tool's capability to assess network criticality and prioritize investments based on climate risks, while Brazil's integration of resilience analysis into operational processes exemplified effective implementation [66][67].