RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)If the most commonly expressed opinions of the petrodollar were true, Treasury rates would already be back up to their late 1970s levels, at best, and gold would be well above $10,000.Instead 30-year Treasuries are 4.9%, within their trading range over the last two years. Gold doubled in the year before the current war, but since the war retreated off its highs. Markets know that the Iran+Oman control over Hormuz is not some big financial catastrophe for the U.S. ...

If the most commonly expressed opinions of the petrodollar were true, Treasury rates would already be back up to their late 1970s levels, at best, and gold would be well above $10,000.Instead 30-year Treasuries are 4.9%, within their trading range over the last two years. Gold doubled in the year before the current war, but since the war retreated off its highs. Markets know that the Iran+Oman control over Hormuz is not some big financial catastrophe for the U.S.Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4):@shanaka86 Does anyb ...

Market Reaction to Economic Data - The market initially reacted strongly to the weak ADP report, the weakest since March 2023, and a negative revision to the previous month's report [2] - The dollar index did not react as strongly to the weak jobs data, indicating a mixed market response [4] Bond Market and Yields - Two-year Treasury yields dropped more aggressively than 10-year yields [3] - Two-year yields were down approximately 7 basis points, while 10-year yields were down about half that amount [3] - The yield curve is steepening because short rates have dropped significantly [6] - If the market closed at the current levels, it would be at a two-week low yield close in twos and a one-week low yield close in tens [6] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The market has upgraded the percentages for Federal Reserve easing at the remaining meetings this year [5] - The market is pricing in slightly more than 25 basis points of easing at the next meeting, technically over 100% [5] Labor Market and Inflation - Weak jobs data underscores labor market weakness, which the Fed has highlighted in relation to inflationary issues [4] - The drop in the two-year yield reflects the importance of labor market weakness to the Fed's current strategy [4]