Core Insights - The 2025 holiday season is expected to be divided into two distinct segments, influenced by varying consumer spending behaviors based on income levels [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income individuals are likely to have a decent holiday season, with average salaries rising between 4.5% and 6.7% depending on job stability [2] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumer spending, while the remaining 90% are expected to spend less due to high credit card debt and economic uncertainty [5][6] - Retail sales growth is projected at 4% for the holiday season, but much of this increase will be due to inflation rather than volume, leading to relatively flat real spending [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales growth between 2.9% and 3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% and the 10-year average of 5.2% [8] - The economic landscape is characterized by high inflation, tariffs, and uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence and spending [8][9] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, which rely heavily on holiday sales for revenue, may face challenges unless they cater to affluent demographics or are located in wealthier areas [10][11] - The disparity in consumer behavior suggests that while some businesses may thrive, others will struggle due to reduced spending from lower-income consumers [9][11]